interview
French Iran expert David Rigoulet-Roze on the consequences of the war – and on the question of what could happen next at the top of the mullahs’ regime.
March 8, 2026, 8:01 p.mMarch 8, 2026, 8:03 p.m
Did Israel, i.e. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, drag the USA into this war?
In a way, yes. With the war, Netanyahu has rallied almost all of his compatriots, including the political left, behind him – very different from the Gaza war.
A man places an Iranian flag in the rubble of a damaged police station following airstrikes in Tehran.Image: keystone
Maybe Reza Pahlavi, the Shah’s son?
He benefits from a massive media response in the West. In Iran, however, he is far from rallying people behind him. (aargauerzeitung.ch)
Shouldn’t Trump have first secured the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas transport?
It’s not that easy. It’s not a physical barrier, but a security threat from the Iranians. The Revolutionary Guard’s speedboats, probably also kamikaze boats, can cause a lot of damage among the freighters.
David Rigoulet Roze
David Rigoulet-Roze is a leading French expert on the Middle East, with a focus on Iran and Saudi Arabia. The 60-year-old researcher and lecturer works in Paris for the “Institute for International and Strategic Relations” (IRIS) and publishes the respected magazine “Orients Stratégies”.
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Are the Iranian Navy and Air Force really largely destroyed, as Donald Trump claims?
No. It is true that the units of Artesh, the regular Iranian army, are severely weakened. Although they continue to have large stocks, they are poorly equipped because of international sanctions since 1979; Their old American F4 jets have no chance against new generation fighter jets. But in Iran there is a second army – that of the Revolutionary Guard. They have functioning ballistic missiles, the Shahed drones known from the Ukraine war and the dangerous speedboats. The Americans are primarily targeting the units of these Islamic Revolutionary Guards, not the regular army.
Are the Iranians generally already running out of ammunition, as some people say?
It is true that the frequency of drone attacks is decreasing. But not necessarily because the drones are running out, but because the launch pads are missing. Approximately 300 of these launch stations were identified using thermal detectors and destroyed. The drone stocks are still considerable and also renewable.
Iranians hold pictures of slain revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei during Friday prayers in Tehran.Image: keystone
Could the Americans launch Kurdish ground troops from Iraq?
For Trump, this is a possible alternative to sending American ground troops. However, the use of Kurdish militias would be very risky.
Why?
The Iranian multi-ethnic state could explode. In addition to the Kurds in the west, there are also Azerbaijanis in the north, as well as the Baluchis near Pakistan. If these peoples on the periphery of this huge country are strengthened, the center threatens to implode. In addition, a Greater Iraq could emerge.
Is there a risk of civil war in this case?
Not a civil war, but the fragmentation of Iran. The consequences for the entire region would be unforeseeable.
Did Israel, i.e. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, drag the USA into this war?
In a way, yes. With the war, Netanyahu has rallied almost all of his compatriots, including the political left, behind him – very different from the Gaza war.
The Israelis had done good groundwork: someone said that the Israeli spies knew Tehran as well as Jerusalem.
The Israelis know everything about Iran. And not just because of the air surveillance that the Americans practice in Ukraine, for example. The Israelis have been penetrating Iran’s security systems at the highest level for twenty years. As it turned out, a person responsible for Iranian counterintelligence was himself a spy for the Mossad (the Israeli foreign secret service, ed.). Today there is real paranoia in Tehran, everyone suspects everyone else. This is also because there are several power centers in Tehran that view each other with suspicion. The Revolutionary Guards, the Pasdaran, have the greatest power. They are working to establish Modshtaba Khamenei as the successor to his father, the neutralized Ayatollah Khamenei.
Although this son is not an Ayatollah at all.
Exactly, he’s just Hojatoleslam. This level of clergy is above the priests, the mullahs, but below the ayatollahs. There is no consensus for the appointment of Khamenei’s son. In the 88-member “Assembly of Experts”, eight experts apparently voted against him despite attempts to pressure him – an unheard-of occurrence that indicates strong tensions in the so-called “Nezam”, the system of the Islamic Republic.
Iran is bombing the Gulf states, even Cyprus and Azerbaijan. What strategy is he pursuing with this?
Probably the strategy of chaos, for lack of other options.
Doesn’t the regime in Tehran also want to destabilize Trump by expanding the conflict, which will put a strain on the global economy?
The calculation was probably to get the Gulf sheikhdoms to break away from the USA. But the mullahs miscalculated: the opposite happened; the emirs rally together and behind the Americans.
Are there demonstrations in Iranian cities again?
So far, people are staying at home. The horror of the regime’s brutal response to the January demonstrations runs deep.
Do the Israelis want to prepare the ground for an uprising by the Iranian people with their attacks against the regime’s repressive apparatus – for example police posts?
It is unclear whether Netanyahu and Trump want to effect regime change. The prospect of democracy is not necessarily a priority. To avoid chaos, Americans may be more tempted to bring a representative from the system to the top.
Who could that be?
Many potential candidates stay in the shadows and wait to avoid being accused of treason. Who that will be is currently completely open.
Maybe Reza Pahlavi, the Shah’s son?
He benefits from a massive media response in the West. In Iran, however, he is far from rallying people behind him. (aargauerzeitung.ch)