Donald Trump wants to put pressure on the Iranian regime with his blockade, but the effectiveness of this approach gives rise to speculation.
image: Imago
Despite the blockade imposed by Donald Trump, Iran managed to avert financial collapse. Analysts highlight the regime’s resilience in the face of economic pressure.
April 26, 2026, 6:38 p.mApril 26, 2026, 6:38 p.m
Callum PATON, Doha, Qatar / AFP
The U.S. naval blockade of Iran is expected to slow the country’s oil production in the coming weeks, but analysts say it is premature to predict an economic collapse in the Islamic Republic.
After weeks of bombing and retaliatory strikes, the standoff is now unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments normally pass.
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A risky strategy
In response to Tehran’s blockade of this sea route, Washington imposed a blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 to force the Islamic Republic to compromise. However, this risky maneuver is unlikely to pay off, at least in the short term.
Saeed Laylaz, economic researcher and professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, emphasizes:
“If the blockade lasts longer than two or three months, it could cause greater damage to Iran. But the damage to the countries south of the Persian Gulf will certainly be greater.”
The oil sector as a means of pressure
US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that Iran was in a “financial crisis” due to the blockade and that the country was running out of “cash”.
His finance minister, Scott Bessent, predicted that storage capacity on Kharg Island, the country’s main crude export terminal, “will be full and Iran’s fragile oil wells will be shut down.”
Around 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports are transported through Kharg Island in the northeastern part of the Persian Gulf.Image: Shutterstock
According to Jamie Ingram, editor-in-chief of the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), the time Tehran has left before its storage capacity is exhausted, measured in weeks rather than daysalthough it is likely that Iran will reduce its production “slightly before reaching this stage.”
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, assumes that the country “will reach its storage capacity within about a month, but “It could be forced to cut some of its oil production within two weeks.”.
Iran’s crude oil production has already slowed since the start of the war, according to an analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by Kpler.
According to Falakshahi, production fell by about 200,000 barrels per day in March to a total of 3.68 million barrels and is expected to fall by another 420,000 barrels per day in April to a total of 3.43 million barrels. This reflects “export disruptions and refinery bottlenecks related to the ongoing conflict.”
And the island of Kharg “should not represent a particular bottleneck” for Iran, explains Jamie Ingram: it is an export warehouse and the oil can also be transported elsewhere.
Satellite image of Kharg Island, February 2026.
Image: Keystone
The resilience of the Iranian regime
Since the US and Israeli attacks, which have also damaged other sectors of the economy, Iran has certainly become more dependent on oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
But the country has “demonstrated its ability to cope with massive drops in oil revenues even during previous rounds of sanctions,” emphasizes Ingram and adds:
“I would not underestimate the resilience of the regime in this regard.”
On Tuesday, Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire that came into force on April 8th by an initial two weeksto give time to the talks being held under Pakistani auspices.
Tehran welcomed the Pakistani mediator’s efforts without commenting on the US president’s announcement. At the same time, it reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would not be opened as long as the US naval blockade remained in place. Ingram estimates:
“It will be a long time before economic difficulties force Iran to make concessions.”
He assumes that China will instead “put more pressure on Iran to negotiate.”
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group acknowledges that Iran’s economy, already weakened before the war, now faces a variety of challenges. However, he notes: “The Iranian leadership has already shown that it has a high threshold of tolerance, even in the face of increasing pressure on the Iranian population.” He concludes:
“They probably also assume that their own efforts to restrict traffic in the Strait of Hormuz represent some sort of guaranteed mutual disruption.”