The worry lines on Putin’s forehead are not getting any less.Image: keystone
analysis
For Vladimir Putin, the increased oil prices are just a small ray of hope in a bleak overall picture. Even his propagandists currently see Ukraine as having an advantage in the war.
May 1, 2026, 8:12 p.mMay 1, 2026, 8:12 p.m
Vladimir Putin once again spoke on the phone with Donald Trump. The US President has often allowed himself to be lulled by the Russian ruler in the past. But the conversation on Wednesday doesn’t seem to have gone entirely to Putin’s liking. Russian state media reported it was was “open and businesslike”..
Translated from diplomatic jargon, this means that there was rather disagreement, even if Trump claimed that it was a “very good” conversation. One topic was a “small ceasefire” on May 9th, when Russia celebrated its victory over Nazi Germany. Otherwise, there seemed to be little agreement on the wars in Iran and Ukraine.
This year, no rockets will land on Red Square on May 9th.Image: keystone
Things are anything but smooth for Putin at the moment. To a certain extent, he is experiencing a spring of discontent, to quote a tyrant who is particularly notorious in literary terms. It had just been said that he belonged thanks to the sharp rise in oil prices and the associated easing of sanctions to those who profited from the Iran war.
But the reality looks less rosy. Russia is suffering one setback after another. Even among the population that has been “sedated” by Putin’s regime, discontent is growing. The head of state’s popularity rating is 66.7 percent fell to its lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Western politicians would be happy about it, but the negative trend must be alarming for Vladimir Putin’s image as a strict but fair tsar. There are a few reasons why things are going badly:
Iran war
In the war against Iran launched by Israel and the USA, Russia is only playing a spectator role. This became apparent on Monday when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Putin in St. Petersburg. Apart from nice words, little came out, even though the Iranians are among Russia’s allies in the “axis of the autocrats.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (l.) at the meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg.Image: keystone
Putin is in a quandary because he cannot anger his “buddy” Donald Trump. At the same time, if the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz opens, the short-term financial advantage threatens to evaporate. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov’s statement after the meeting was full of empty phrases, including an offer of mediation.
In any case, the additional income from the oil business was not enough to cover the state’s lossessaid Thomas Nilsson, head of Swedish military intelligence, to the Financial Times. The switch to a war economy has ensured short-term growth, but overall the Russian economy is in bad shape.
Ukraine war
Vladimir Putin has been waging his war of aggression in Ukraine for more than four years. After initial successes, there was little progress on the front. Both sides are struggling with problems in recruiting soldiers and supplies, especially food (on the Russian side it is said to be so). have resorted to cannibalism).
But in one area the Ukrainians have gained the upper hand: thanks to their modern drones They were able to retake territory. They produce so many that they… even want to exportas President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Tuesday. And they are “neutralizing” more Russian soldiers than can move forward.
Ukraine increasingly has the upper hand in drone warfare.Image: keystone
The inhumane strategy of digging forward meter by meter at the front with enormous losses is becoming a complete failure. Fewer and fewer Russians seem to be willing to allow themselves to be grinded into this “meat grinder”. Which is why Moscow is now trying to get to the universities that have so far been spared to recruit soldiers using nasty tricks.
A Russian spring offensive is expected soon, but even the Kremlin is in favor of it set a modest goal: He wants to conquer the entire “Donetsk People’s Republic”. And that will be difficult enough, because the army would have to crack the Ukrainian fortress belt. According to experts, it lacks vehicles and soldiers.
Victory Day
The military parade on May 9th on Red Square in Moscow will take place this year without tanks and missiles. The Ministry of Defense had to announce this on Wednesday. Kremlin spokesman Peskov cited the “terrorist threat” as the reason. In other words: The Kremlin is afraid of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Ukraine has also made progress with long-range drones. Lately you’ve been able to Strikes against the Russian oil industry. Vladimir Putin has publicly complained about this and has effectively admitted that the damage is considerable. And Ukraine is already threatening medium-range missiles, which can hit Moscow and St.Petersburg.
Africa Corps
In recent years, the military has overthrown civilian governments in several African countries, with the support of Russian mercenaries from the former Wagner Group. The Afrika Korps, as it is called today – another special historical name – was partly welcomed by the population as liberators. But the euphoria is gone.
Attacks on the civilian population were repeatedly reported. And in the uprising of jihadists and Tuareg rebels in Mali the Afrika Korps was forced to withdraw. This is also due to the fact that he lacks the resources because of the war in Ukraine. The same problem occurred when the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was overthrown.
propaganda
The recent setbacks are affecting the morale of Russian war bloggers and other propagandists. This shows a listing by the writer Christoph Brumme in the NZZ. He lives in the eastern Ukrainian city of Poltava and has been waiting there since the start of the war. Even the harshest supporters would know that the war cannot be won.
The problem is the drones. “We have legendary weapons, they have modern ones,” complained Vladimir Solovyov, Putin’s chief agitator, on state television. Finally he insulted Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the worst waybut fewer and fewer Russians want to listen to his hateful tirades. Solovyov’s show is said to have experienced a real collapse in ratings.
Internet
The Kremlin makes surfing the Internet more difficult.Image: keystone
With the setbacks, paranoia is growing in the Kremlin. Recently, internet censorship has been tightened and the popular messenger Telegram has been restricted. Instead, the Russians should Use the state app Maxwhich is now pre-installed on smartphones. This goes too far even for Russians loyal to the regime.
Last week a rare event occurred in Moscow. Several dozen people stood in front of the presidential administration to write letters of complaint to Putin to demand an end to internet blocksthe BBC reported. This is legal in principle, but anyone who takes part in it is targeted by the state’s repressive apparatus.
It’s not always about politics and freedom of expression. The blockades are also damaging the Russian economy. According to the BBC, the owner of a catering company who can no longer accept orders on her website was also standing in front of the Kremlin. Some observers even see the dispute over the Internet an indication of a power struggle in the Kremlin.
That doesn’t have to mean much. Vladimir Putin has cemented his mafia system to such an extent that he is currently in little danger. But things have never looked as unpleasant for him as they do today since the start of the Ukraine war. However, one should not assume that it will end. For its part, Russia is still terrorizing the Ukrainian population with drones and missiles.