Vladimir Putin (archive photo): The Russian president’s desire to strengthen the military could take precedence over preventing an economic downturn.Image: www.imago-images.de
Putin actually wanted to cut military spending this year, but the opposite is apparently the case. Calculations suggest that the numbers are increasing rapidly.
June 14, 2026, 1:53 p.mJune 14, 2026, 1:53 p.m
Charlotta Siemer / t-online
In the first quarter of 2026, Russia’s military spending reached a new high of 5.9 trillion rubles (about 65.1 billion Swiss francs). This emerges from calculations by Janis Kluge, a scientist at the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), based on data from the Ministry of Finance. Accordingly, military spending in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to 4.5 trillion rubles (around CHF 49.7 billion), 30 percent less than in the first quarter of this year. Total spending for the first quarter was 12.8 trillion rubles (141.2 billion CHF), 46 percent of the total expenditure was used for the military sector.
In recent months, the Russian financial administration has become increasingly concerned about the federal budget and the costs of the war. The central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, who has currently disappeared from the scene, is also said to have spoken out against Putin’s high war costs. The tax revenue was against the background of new sanctions, the slightly stronger ruble compared to the previous year and the weakening economy According to Kluge, in the first quarter it was only 8.3 trillion rubles (91.6 billion CHF). According to the Kremlin, in 2025 the budget deficit amounted to 2.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of the year, despite restrictive monetary policy to reduce the inflation rate.
According to Kluge, the increase in costs is mainly due to higher secret expenses. These have increased by 43 percent compared to the same period last year, and an estimated 85 percent of them will be used for military spending.
The Russian Defense Ministry originally cut planned military spending to 14.9 trillion rubles (164.4 billion CHF) for the whole of 2026, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The Moscow Times reported earlier this year that the higher spending is passed on to the population through higher taxes would. According to the report, tax revenues were already around 36.6 trillion rubles (CHF 403.9 billion) in 2025, below the originally expected value of 40.3 trillion rubles (CHF 444.7 billion). And so the VAT rate rose from 20 to 22 percent from January 1, 2026, for example.
Russian economy minister fears recession
The current situation was already apparent last year: According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Russian Minister of Economic Affairs said this at an economic forum in June 2025 Presumption that the country is heading for a recession. Some commentators therefore suspected that defense cuts could be imminent. Other analysts already assumed at the time that Putin’s will to modernize and Strengthening the military takes priority over preventing an economic downturn will have.
Regarding his calculations, Kluge notes that the significantly higher spending could also be related to the fact that the Russian Finance Ministry may have moved military spending from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. The reason for this is probably not to want to violate the budget targets for 2025. An evaluation of the theory can only take place after the second quarter.