A US soldier is said to have earned over $400,000 with this bet.Image: keystone
April 24, 2026, 11:08April 24, 2026, 11:08
In the USA, a soldier was charged because he is said to have earned $400,000 from a bet on the Polymarket forecasting platform. According to the lawsuit, he bet a good $33,000 that Maduro would no longer be in office at the end of January and that US troops would be deployed in Venezuela at the same time. According to the US Department of Justice, the 38-year-old was involved in the American military operation at the beginning of January.
The suspiciously successful bet caused a stir in January. The indictment could solve the mystery of which insider was behind it. The soldier is accused, among other things, of violating rules against the use of non-public government information for business. He faces decades of imprisonment.
Especially in the wake of the Iran war, these prediction markets are once again in the public eye. You can find out exactly how these work and what Swiss law says about them here.
This is how Polymarket and Co. work.
Prediction markets have emerged strongly in recent years. They are comparable to betting shops. Attendees can purchase coupons to enter an event. These can be traded and gain or lose value depending on how things develop. For example, if you bet today that the Iranian regime will fall in April, you will receive a coupon for 0.8 cents. If you bet against it, you have to shell out 99.2 cents.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the top dogs among the prediction markets.Image: keystone
Things look different for May. According to Polymarket, the chance of the same event occurring next month is just under 5 percent (4.6 cents for a yes coupon, 95.4 cents for a no). A clear majority of users currently assume that the Iranian regime will remain in power.
Update
This story has already been published on watson. Due to current circumstances, we have decided to update and republish it.
Betting on Swiss votes
The use of prediction markets in Switzerland falls under the Gambling Act. The call from international market leaders such as Polymarket and Kalshi is blocked in Switzerland. Nevertheless, you can also bet on Swiss events, such as the vote in June.
According to current bets on Polymarket, the chances of the Civil Service Act being adopted are good. The betting provider assumes 82 percent will be yes. For the popular initiative “No 10 Million Switzerland”, however, Polymarket expects 70 percent to vote no.
When the market becomes a prophet
The idea behind prediction markets is to be able to make predictions about the occurrence of certain events based on the market dynamics of incoming bets. The accuracy of prediction markets is sometimes astonishing. When it comes to predicting political elections, for example, they already compete strongly with traditional polls.
From war to betting business: Various bets on the Iran War can be placed on Polymarket.Image: keystone
However, the store doesn’t care about tastelessness. The “distance” of Ayatollah Khamenei could also be predicted. Like all good ideas, humanity must reduce this to absurdity – for example, one could bet that Looksmaxxer Clavicular would become the next Ayatollah in Iran.
The chances of this happening were slim – but over a million US dollars were placed on the Gaga bet. The suspicion of money laundering is obvious.
Looksmaxxer Clavicular in an interview.Image: screenshot instagram
Insider knowledge is monetized
A little less gaga, but more problematic, are bets à la: “Which character will die in the fifth season of “The Boys”?” Why? Because at least the scriptwriters, all the actors and a bunch of people involved already have this information.
The situation is similar with strategic decisions by the US government. Various people are involved here too. Donald Trump’s loose mouth expands this circle almost arbitrarily. Thanks to prediction markets, almost any insider knowledge of the US government can be monetized. That’s exactly what happens.
In May 2025, Nazi sympathizer Kyle Langford used the Kalshi platform to bet $200 on his own candidacy for governor of California – which he then immediately announced. He was banned for five years and fined $2,200. A producer of the world’s most successful YouTuber Mr. Beast was also banned. He also used insider information for betting winnings.
Trump stops proceedings
The prediction markets are public. Foreign authorities also study the movements of the markets – and draw their conclusions when another suspicious bet is placed. One might think that it would be in the US government’s best interest to stop insider betting. But that’s not the case. Despite increasingly loud calls for regulations, the current US government is relying on self-regulation among providers.
Trump’s family earns a lot from Polymarket and Co.Image: keystone
“It’s like whipping them with a wet noodle,” Chris Ehrman smugly commented on the “measure” on NBC News. Attorney Ehrman knows his stuff. He headed the whistleblower office of the U.S. Futures and Options Trading Authority.
Above all, no regulations help the providers – and the Trump family. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, has a stake in Polymarket through his investment company. At the same time, he acts as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, its largest competitor. Under Joe Biden, US citizens were banned from betting on Polymarket. A corresponding lawsuit was dropped under Donald Trump. (tog/leo)