analysis
Donald Trump doesn’t cut a good figure during his visit to Beijing.
May 15, 2026, 4:48 p.mMay 15, 2026, 4:48 p.m
Would you like a little study in contrasts? At the meeting between the two heads of state, Donald Trump slimed in the way he usually does with his visitors to the Oval Office. “You are a great leader,” he whispered to the host. “Even if many people don’t want to hear it, I keep saying it.”
Xi Jinping, on the other hand, acted statesmanlike and gave Trump a short history lesson. He ventured far into the time before the birth of Christ. The two superpowers have to be careful not to fall into the Thucydides trap, said the Chinese president. He was alluding to the Greek historian Thucydides, who explained the war between Athens and Sparta by saying that the rise of a new power must inevitably lead to war with the existing one.
Today, the Thucydides Trap is often cited as an explanation for the First World War. At that time, the emerging Germany became a threat to Great Britain. Years ago, Harvard historian Graham Allison warned in a widely acclaimed book that the USA and China could fall into the same trap.
We can assume that Trump had no idea what Xi was talking about. History leaves him cold, and he is known to have the memory of a goldfish. What interests him are deals. That’s why he gathered the richest men around him in the hope that they would return with full order books.
Xi is completely different. Neither the CEOs of BYD, Huawei nor DeepSeek were present. Instead, the Chinese president gave his counterpart a blunt warning: Keep your hands off Taiwan or there will be trouble.
Having to accept warnings is rather unusual for Trump. When journalists asked him how the talks with Xi went, he could only stutter: “China is very beautiful.” Conversely, it shows how self-confident the Chinese leadership now is. Ryan Hass sums up the new balance of power in the “Atlantic” as follows:
“China is convinced that the surest path to international power is not through direct confrontation, but through patience. Why would Beijing start a war to challenge American leadership in the Middle East or anywhere in the world when the United States is putting itself in trouble, militarily, fiscally and politically? China’s mission is therefore not to exploit the current situation, but to create the basis for a future that serves its interests.”
In other words, the Chinese are acting according to Napoleon’s motto: “Never disturb an enemy when he is making a mistake.” With the war against Iran, Trump and the USA are currently making a monumental mistake. Also in “Atlantic,” historian Robert Kagan states: “This conflict has revealed that Americans are not, as advocates claim, demonstrating their military prowess, but rather that America is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it starts. This will lead to a chain reaction worldwide and friends and enemies will adapt to America’s failure.”
The United States is caught in a trap in the Middle East, not Thucydides’ trap, but a trap from which it cannot escape without losing face. “A defeat for the United States is therefore not only possible, but probable,” said Kagan.
However, it would be a mistake to believe that everything is going smoothly in China. Its economy is still far too dependent on exports and is therefore vulnerable to crises. The one-child policy imposed by the state for a long time will mean that the population is not only aging, but is already declining. In addition, China is far from democracy and the rule of law.
The two heads of state at the photo session.Image: keystone
However, the irresponsible and openly corrupt policies of the American president mean that people in Beijing can look forward to an imminent decline of the USA with good reasons:
- Trump has gambled away one of the USA’s most important assets, its large network of allies. This is why NATO – a bulwark against the enemies of the liberal West for decades – has become fragile. Japan, South Korea and Australia are also turning away from the USA.
- China has become the leader of the ecological restructuring of the economy. Whether solar panels, wind turbines, batteries or electric cars, the Chinese are leaders in all of these areas. Meanwhile, Trump is looking in the rearview mirror and leading the USA back into the fossil fuel age.
- The US President is not only angering the whole world with his tariff policy. Paradoxically, he is also destroying industrial jobs in his own country and fueling inflation.
Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jen-Hsun Huang – on his trip to Beijing, Trump surrounded himself with the most illustrious names in the American business community. He wanted to demonstrate splendor and economic potential. The result probably didn’t quite meet his expectations.
“The visit, in addition to being a sad example of American weakness and Chinese strength, is also an example of how corruption has now permeated the entire American government,” Paul Krugman notes in his column on Substack.