The party’s collapse in the region has turned Makerfield decisively into Reform territory — as witnessed in Reform’s sweep of last month’s local elections in the area — and Public First’s model shows Labour faces a steep challenge to win in Makerfield again. No constituency in Greater Manchester has worse odds for Labour against Reform than Makerfield, and the seat is among the worst for Labour in the entire north of England.
But that risk also comes with upside: Surviving that test could give Burnham and his supporters the ability to claim they know how to win back the voters who have left Labour ahead of the next general election, not expected until 2029.
Burnham’s popularity is thanks to his track record of urban improvements, which have earned him the nickname of “The King of the North” and give him a fighting chance at winning the seat. Public First’s model, which uses national-level polling to model public opinion at a constituency level, underscores Burnham’s ability to outrun his party: Accounting for his individualized support, the model shows a race that shifts from a Reform blowout into something more akin to a coin flip.
“If Burnham wins, and continues on to be prime minister, he will face accusations that he lacks a mandate. While a single constituency is likely not enough to silence those accusations entirely, the criticism would have a sharper edge if Burnham had run in a safer, central Manchester seat,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “Makerfield could prove a useful small-scale test of Burnham’s national election strategy: That his personal brand can beat out Reform’s momentum.”
A bulwark for Labour
For more than a century, the area has exclusively elected Labour MPs, but that loyalty began to fade in recent years. Former MP Yvonne Fovargue saw her margins erode from dominant 30-point wins to an 11-point victory in 2019. Fellow Labour member Josh Simons — who stood aside to trigger the Makerfield election for Burnham — succeeded her in 2024 with a nearly identical vote share, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK gained nearly 19 points from what the Brexit Party had earned in 2019.
Public First’s model shows Reform has continued to gain, and is now dominant.