The oil market is in danger of “getting completely out of control”. But it’s not just this market that is affected.
Mar 20, 2026, 9:16 p.mMar 20, 2026, 9:16 p.m
All consequences considered? US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.Image: keystone
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has made another interest rate decision. At its location near Zurich’s Paradeplatz, President Martin Schlegel announced that the SNB would leave the key interest rate at zero percent. So everything remained quiet, nothing moved in Zurich. However, whether this will remain the case in the future will be decided elsewhere in the world – around 4,000 kilometers further east, in the Strait of Hormuz.
The USA suddenly has a lot to learn about this strait after President Donald Trump attacked Iran. US comedian Jon Stewart scoffs: “Wars are God’s way of teaching Americans some geography.” But it won’t just be a geographical lesson.
The USA, and with it Switzerland, must recognize what the British magazine «The Economist» after research found: “A shockingly large number of global supply chains run through the Strait of Hormuz.” Now Trump has interrupted it, in a world-historical experiment, so to speak. Experts are on the trail of all possible consequences, but it remains an experiment with an open outcome.
The magnitude can be illustrated using comparisons with previous crises. Financial expert Robin Brooks, for example, uses the war that Russian President Vladimir Putin started against Ukraine four years ago. Before that, Russia contributed far less oil to global supply than is normally transported through the Strait of Hormuz. About three times less!
The US energy expert Rory Johnston has the dimensions with a Corona comparison clarified. 20 million barrels per day is about as much oil as the entire world saved when it went into lockdown for two months in 2020 from the virus. At that time, almost no jets took to the skies, most cars remained in the garage and many trains stood still.
Given the dimensions, it is not surprising that prices are skyrocketing everywhere, in all possible corners of the global energy system. Brent crude oil has already exceeded $110 per barrel – but has not yet reached the peak value from the last energy crisis, when Russia attacked Ukraine. However, for refined petroleum products, the value chains are more complicated and therefore more vulnerable – and previous record prices have long been exceeded.
The Iran War hits store shelves
This is the case, for example, with fuel for aircraft. The price per barrel is already well above the $180 mark. And it is the same with fuel for large ships. In ports such as Singapore and the Emirate of Fujairah, near the Strait of Hormuz, ships also have to pay refueling prices that are far higher than those of the last energy crisis.
These records inevitably reach the supermarkets of wealthy industrialized countries. Today, goods from all over the world are cheap there – thanks to cheap transport via jets and especially container ships. If their fuel is record expensive or not available at all – the goods also become more expensive or are no longer available. According to the Bloomberg news agency, the heads of major shipping companies are already warning: If you do nothing, you will soon no longer be able to refuel in important Asian ports.
As the world increasingly realizes, it is not just the oil market that depends on the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Economist, the industry is also in disarray. Important factories producing petrochemicals are now excluded from the global market. This in turn is now causing problems worldwide in the production of plastic and medicines such as aspirin and antibiotics. Components for cutting and drilling tools, paints, plastics, chemicals and building materials also come from the Gulf region.
Then the region is an important source of energy-intensive aluminum, the price of which has also skyrocketed. For raw materials expert Javier Blas, the metal is simply one of the “foundations of modern life”. It is installed in airplanes, iPhones, window frames, beverage cans, electric vehicles and, and, and. Helium is in short supply and has become more expensive commercially, at times by up to 100 percent. This in turn affects the manufacturers of semiconductor chips. Helium is needed to cool the super magnets contained in the chips.
The poorest countries are running out of fertilizer
One of the most affected sectors will be agriculture. Natural gas, which is abundant in the region, is used in the production of fertilizers and accounts for a large part of the costs. That’s why around a third of the fertilizer traded worldwide passes through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the United Nations, if the road is closed, the poorest countries in particular could suffer. Sudan sources around half of its fertilizer from the Gulf region. The “Financial Times” headlines about an impending “global shock for agriculture”.
The dimensions and possible effects are frighteningly large. At the same time, they are the most important reason why one can hope for an early end to the war, says expert Johnston. He is convincedthat Trump will soon back down. The loss of oil is too great and the consequences could become much worse. “If this crisis doesn’t end soon, the energy market will be completely out of control.”
A US soldier observes an Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz.Image: EPA US MARINE CORPS