Despite Brexit: London is still the most important financial center in EuropeImage: AP
Exactly ten years ago today, the British electorate said yes to leaving the EU. Although the impact on migration, the economy and prosperity was enormous, the predicted collapse of the kingdom did not occur. A look at what happened and what could have been.
June 23, 2026, 7:54 p.mJune 23, 2026, 7:54 p.m
On June 23, 2016, around 51.9 percent of Britons voted “Leave” and therefore yes to Brexit. The vote marks the end of one of the most turbulent debates in the UK in decades. Proponents promised economic recovery, less migration and more national independence. The other side threatened a recession, division with Europe and loss of prosperity.
Today, exactly ten years after the referendum and over six years since the United Kingdom officially left the bloc in January 2020, we take stock.
Growth despite or because of Brexit?
“By the end of 2025, the Brexit process has reduced British GDP by 6 to 8 percent, investment by 12 to 13 percent, work by 3 to 4 percent and productivity by 3 to 4 percent,” researchers from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) write in one new study on the economic effects of Brexit.
The US scientists not only examined the economic changes after Brexit. They also analyzed how the UK would have fared economically and demographically if they had said no to Brexit.
However, the UK economy as a whole has grown since the referendum was passed. In the first quarter of 2026, the gross domestic product is 12.4 percent higher and not, as the NBER writes in the study, 6 to 8 percent lower.
During this time, British GDP grew faster than that of Germany (6 percent), Italy (9.7 percent) and almost as fast as that of France (12.7 percent). At 13.6 percent, the EU economy grew on average, just 1.2 percent faster than that of Great Britain.
But this growth probably came despite Brexit and not because of it. The study does not claim that the British economy shrank by 6 to 8 percent because of Brexit – but it would probably have grown even more without Brexit.
All the data compiled by the researchers shows a significant decline in 2020. Although the United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 1st, the decline is primarily the result of the corona pandemic that began at the same time. However, this is not included in the long-term forecasts from 2016 on which the study is based.
The same applies to the other global economic shocks since then – in addition to the corona pandemic from 2020 to 2022, the Ukraine war from 2022 and Donald Trump’s tariffs from 2025 also had an impact on the British economy, which are not included in the forecasts.
Great Britain therefore falls significantly behind the predictions, but so do the 33 comparison countries that were included in the study in order to prevent this distortion due to unforeseeable events. But it remains a comparison of fictional and real numbers.
Trade, foreign money and banks
While the British economy recovered quickly from the first Corona lockdown, it is still behind what it could have been without Brexit. On the one hand, this is due to lower exports. The EU remains Britain’s most important trading partner, with over half of exports going to the European Union, but higher bureaucratic hurdles are affecting export figures.
Since leaving the EU internal market in January 2021, all goods must be declared to cross the border. In the meantime, complex customs and veterinary controls are also necessary for certain goods such as plants or animal foods. Post-Brexit trade in goods with the EU has become more bureaucratic and expensive for the UK.
Trade increased sharply in 2022. But this is due, on the one hand, to the recovery effect from the corona pandemic as well as to energy prices, which have risen significantly due to the Russian attack on Ukraine. However, trade today is more than ten percent below the level of ten years ago.
Business investment also did not increase as much as it potentially would have if the UK were still in the EU, which also has a negative impact on economic growth.
According to economist and co-author of the study Nicholas Bloom, the biggest problem for potential investors is uncertainty. In the United Kingdom, after the vote, there were extensive discussions between two camps: the most comprehensive trade agreement possible with the European Union versus a hard Brexit without an agreement. This uncertainty led to investments by foreign companies being smaller.
Jobs and independence
In the previous debate on the Brexit referendum, the question of how leaving the EU would affect employment was a central question. The exit actually meant a termination of the EU’s free movement of people, which in turn led to a direct shortage of workers at times.
In fact, the number of people employed has also grown since Brexit. Similar to economic growth, the same pattern emerges here – despite Brexit, there was growth, but not as strong as it could have been.
Less migration?
To address skills shortages and labor shortages more generally, the United Kingdom is increasingly turning to the Commonwealth for relief. Ironically, this has led to migration increasing despite the Leave camp’s promises of nationalist independence.
Several million people migrated to Great Britain from non-EU countries. Thousands of people come to work, especially from former British colonies such as India and Nigeria.
At the same time, the British pound lost value as a result of leaving the EU, which has resulted in Brits now earning around 12 percent less, which in turn makes it more attractive for foreign companies to hire workers from Great Britain. More British citizens are now emigrating abroad, which is further exacerbating the labor shortage.
Even before the end of the free movement of people in 2019, the number of migrants from the EU fell significantly. Not least because of the fall in the value of the British pound, which made the United Kingdom less attractive as a place to work, while at the same time the economic situation in some EU countries, such as Poland, improved significantly.
In 2021, the United Kingdom also introduced a new, points-based immigration system to replace the EU regulations. From now on, every person who comes must prove they have English language skills and have a job. These restrictive measures led to a further decrease in migrants from the EU and at the same time to a boom in migration from non-EU countries.
The kingdom in politically turbulent times
While the assumption that the Brexit referendum was the end of a turbulent debate and for many offered a promised solution, especially with regard to migration and stagnating wages, this by no means led to less stormy times – on the contrary. Assume that current Prime Minister Keir Starmer vacates as on Monday, June 22, 2026 announcedAndy Burnham will probably become the seventh prime minister since the Brexit referendum.
Since David Cameron resigned in 2016, none of the prime ministers have completed a full term in office, meaning they resigned of their own free will and were not voted out.
This dissatisfaction in parliamentary politics can also be observed among the broader voting population. Because if the Brexit referendum were to be voted on again today, it would probably have no chance. In surveys today, over 57 percent of people say that Brexit was a mistake, and only 30 percent think that leaving the EU was the right thing to do.
The economic collapse of the former empire has so far not occurred. However, economic experts at the University of Cambridge state that “the basic economic consensus about the negative effects of Brexit has been confirmed overall”.
But has the British economy changed during this time? While the former industrial nation Great Britain is now clearly lagging behind other G7 nations, the service sector was able to take a pioneering position post-Brexit. London remained the most important financial center Europe.
The fear of falling prosperity, the loss of independence to the EU, continued stagnating wages and foreign infiltration through migration led many people to vote for Brexit on June 23, 2023. But many of these fears were further fueled by this.