interview
Iran expert Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik from the University of Bern explains why Tehran is triumphing in its struggle with Trump – and why the celebration could still be premature.
June 16, 2026, 05:45June 16, 2026, 05:45
An Iranian with the national flag in front of a poster of the killed revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran.Image: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA
This Friday, history is set to be made in Geneva: The USA and Iran want to sign a declaration of intent that should lead to peace. What exactly it says is still unclear. However, the details that have become known so far only make one side rejoice: the Iranian one.
Iran expert Mahdi Rezaei-Tazik classifies the Iranian view of the agreement.
Those in power in Tehran are celebrating the agreement with the USA as a “great victory”. Are they right to cheer?
The fear of the USA is gone. Iran survived the war. The regime was not overthrown and was able to assert itself against a world power. It emerged from the war stronger. From an ideological perspective, this is a victory. However, large parts of the country’s infrastructure have been destroyed, for example the metal industry. A lot of people have lost their jobs and prices have doubled. Iran’s economy is in ruins.
The agreement with the USA is intended to ease sanctions, allow Iran to rake in billions by controlling the Strait of Hormuz and to release frozen foreign funds. That’s a massive economic gain!
Between 20 and 25 billion dollars that are frozen abroad are to be released. However, the war caused 300 billion worth of destruction in Iran. In the longer term, this is true: If the sanctions are actually relaxed and Iran can sell oil more easily again and connect to the world market, the situation will look different. But that is still open.
Has the Iranian regime achieved the best possible result for itself with this deal that is on the horizon?
It is still unclear which document will actually be signed. The Americans really want an agreement and out of the war. But Israel will become a downfall for the regime in Iran.
What do you mean?
The Iranian regime cannot abandon Hezbollah in Lebanon for ideological reasons. This time the militia went to war against Israel only because of Iran. My impression is that further conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable. That is why the war between Iran and Israel will not end in the foreseeable future. Those in power in Iran know this.
Lebanese soldier in the south of the country: The fate of the Iran deal will also be decided here.Image: Mohammed Zaatari
Who are the rulers in Iran at the moment? Who did Trump’s people actually negotiate with?
Who exactly is in charge is not entirely sure. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament, certainly plays an essential role. He embodies the Revolutionary Guards. How far Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is capable of leading remains unclear. The Revolutionary Guards have ruled the country for years, and it still is that way at the moment. Iran is still a theocracy. However, the term “mullah regime” no longer fits this country at all.
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.Image: Getty Images
Does the regime agree on the agreement with the USA, or is there internal resistance?
There are differences of opinion, but more on questions of detail. Everyone wants the war to end because the country can no longer afford to continue.
Does the agreement further strengthen the regime’s position?
The focus is on sanctions. The US has bet on destroying Iran’s economy, hoping that this will cause the people to rise up against the leadership. That didn’t happen. If everyone sticks to the agreement and the sanctions are relaxed, then the regime is the clear winner.
Tens of thousands of people lost their lives during the protests in January. Will the population forgive the leadership for the high sacrifices and destruction if sanctions are relaxed?
The brutality will stick. The gap between the people and the regime is greater than before the war. But you can’t understand the protests in January without this war. Actors abroad, the son of the last Shah Reza Pahlavi and also the broadcaster “Iran International” have called on the people of Iran to rebel against the regime – without dealing with all the reactions, including how hard it will strike back.
Could an economic opening lead to new demands from society for freedom?
If you travel to Tehran today, you would be amazed. When it comes to certain freedoms, Iran can no longer be compared to a few years ago. The new generation ignores the regime’s ideology. Certain freedoms were won, and the leadership took at least a few steps back on some issues. Compared to Western societies, these are banal rights, for example when it comes to dress codes. But it made people’s reality a little easier. But of course there was no fundamental opening.
Do you think another rebellion is possible in the near future?
I do not believe that. The protests in January were suppressed to such an extent that the people no longer dare to speak out. I don’t believe there will be another uprising in the foreseeable future. Also because of people’s war-weariness.
Do you think it is conceivable that Iran will actually give up its nuclear program?
Nope. I keep hearing that the regime will keep a certain amount of enriched uranium so as not to lose its deterrent potential. However, many voices in Iran also say that the Strait of Hormuz has a greater impact than a nuclear bomb. When it comes to the nuclear program, the question arises about costs. I see that the regime is moving towards economic instruments, i.e. using the Strait of Hormuz as a means of pressure.
How could the peace deal fail now?
On developments in Lebanon. The regime doesn’t want war with Israel, but it also can’t let Hezbollah fall. It is a central pillar of the ideology.
What would happen domestically if the signing on Friday fails or if the promised economic relief fails to materialize?
I assume that the signing will take place. Everything points to that at the moment. If it doesn’t happen, the economic situation would continue to deteriorate and people would be even worse off. But this would not immediately lead to the fall of the regime. The “pain tolerance” in Iran is high. No matter what the emergency, the regime does not have to justify itself to the people. Tehran can no longer afford the war, but more in the sense that there is nothing left to gain. However, the state leadership is not so weakened that it can no longer offer resistance. (schweiztoday.ch)