The US war against Iran could play into Xi Jinping’s hands.Image: keystone
Thanks to massive oil reserves, the People’s Republic can cushion the consequences of the energy crisis better than other countries in the region. And geopolitically, Beijing is likely to be a beneficiary.
March 26, 2026, 05:33March 26, 2026, 05:33
Fabian Kretschmer, Seoul / ch media
It sounds macabre, but Chen Dingding describes an ongoing Iran war as a “strategic opportunity” for China. In a widely acclaimed analysis, the politics professor at Jinan University in the east of the country concludes that the People’s Republic could be the big beneficiary of the conflict in the Middle East. He cites three crucial circumstances – but also a major risk.
America is losing resources and prestige
For one thing, the war would “systematically deplete the military, diplomatic, and financial resources of the United States.” In other words: The USA, China’s biggest rival in the hegemonic competition of the 21st century, is currently using up its gunpowder in the Middle East, while Beijing is watching the chaos caused from the sidelines.
And of course the People’s Republic is gaining popularity, especially in the global south, without actively doing anything about it. The more wars US President Donald Trump starts, the more peace-loving and rational the alternative world power China appears – a narrative that President Xi Jinping is trumpeting globally through his propaganda media.
It’s not just in Europe that the USA’s reputation is suffering because of Donald Trump and his policies.Image: keystone
Beijing benefits from new trade routes
At the same time, according to analyst Chen, the war would redirect both capital and energy routes and supply chains in Beijing’s favor in the long term. Anyone who doesn’t want to fear sanctions will probably trade more in renminbi instead of dollars in the future. And the continental land route that runs from East Asia to Europe via China is also becoming more attractive given the closed Strait of Hormuz. “This is not gloating, but a sober structural reality,” writes Chen.
Cars at a gas station in eastern China: The country has built up huge oil reserves and therefore has no export pass.Image: keystone
The fact is: Iran was an important oil supplier for China, but by no means essential. Shortly before the start of the war, Tehran sold 80 percent of its oil exports to China. However, the deliveries in return only made up 12 percent of China’s total imports. The People’s Republic produces a third of its oil itself, including in the western Xinjiang region.
In fact, the neighboring countries in the region are significantly more affected by the oil crisis. South Korea, whose semiconductor-focused economy has strong energy needs, sources around 70 percent of its crude oil via the Strait of Hormuz. In Japan, the proportion of imports shipped via the currently closed trade route is even slightly higher. In China the value is around 40 percent.
Renewable energies and oil reserves: China has taken precautions
The People’s Republic of China has also taken several precautions. On the one hand, the fact that Beijing has invested heavily in the expansion of renewable energies in recent years is paying off. These already generate over 40 percent of the electricity requirement.
Unlike Donald Trump, China has nothing against renewable energy such as wind and solar power.Image: keystone
In addition, China’s leadership has built up huge, strategic oil reserves in case of an emergency. According to an estimate by Columbia University, this could amount to up to 1.4 billion barrels. All of this currently serves as a buffer to cushion the impact of the shortages for at least four months.
A risk still exists
However, the Middle Kingdom is not immune. “For China, the main threat posed by the Iran conflict is that it could inhibit global consumption, with obvious consequences for Chinese exports,” argues economist Alicia García-Herrero for the European think tank Bruegel. The Chinese economy is suffering from historically weak domestic consumption and at the same time is even more dependent on its exports – especially to the EU area. So if Europe buys less from the Middle Kingdom due to an impending economic crisis, then Chinese growth will be significantly slowed down.
In this respect, China is only a limited beneficiary of the Iran war. Incidentally, Professor Chen’s analysis mentioned at the beginning, which caused a sensation on Chinese social media, was soon deleted from the Internet by the censorship apparatus. Because it doesn’t fit at all into the self-image of the Chinese party leadership, which presents itself as a neutral, peace-loving great power – and not as a profiteer from war and misery in the world. (aargauerzeitung.ch)