Tankers and cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Image: keystone
analysis
US President Trump’s agreement with Iran is dead, the situation in the Gulf has escalated again. The focus is on the Strait of Hormuz – and who controls it.
July 10, 2026, 5:51 p.mJuly 10, 2026, 5:51 p.m
Since last Monday, US forces have attacked Iranian targets twice in a row, including the country’s infrastructure for the first time in months, and Iran has responded twice with retaliatory strikes against US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. The US government also revoked the exemptionwhich allows Iranian oil to be sold worldwide. The trigger for the renewed exchange of fire Iranian attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that the 60-day ceasefire set out in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was “over”. However, he is said to have told his advisors that he would not “restart” the war – unless Iran killed US soldiers. According to the portal Axios Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that Iranian representatives had “recently called” and “wanted to reach an agreement.” However, Iranian officials did not confirm any direct contact.
Iranian President Massoud Peseschkian on June 18 with the signed Memorandum of Understanding. Image: keystone
“I just don’t know if they’re worth making a deal with. “I don’t know if they’ll stick to the agreement,” Trump said, according to Axios. “To be honest, they’re kind of crazy,” he added. A US official said the current escalation could last a day or two, a week or a month. This depends on whether Iran continues to attack merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Pièce de résistance: the Strait of Hormuz
US Vice President JD Vance echoed the same sentiments on Wednesday. The US position is clear, the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, he noted. “If they try to block them, there will be a reaction from the American military,” he said. “Either they comply, or exactly what happened to them last night will happen to them. This will continue until they reopen this passage and stop shooting at ships.”
Trump on Air Force One. Image: keystone
The Islamic Republic’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in turn accused the USA of “bullying and unreliability”. In a post on Platform
آمریییی و بدعهدی دیگر بیهزینه نیست. شفاف بگویم: بزنید، میخورید.
دست و پای بیهوده نزنید که بیشتر فرو خواهید رفت: تنگه هرمز، فقط با «ترتیبات ایرانی» باز میشود نه با تهدیدات آمریکایی.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) July 9, 2026
«America has not yet learned that bullying and unreliability are no longer free. To be clear: If you strike, you get it back. Don’t kick around uselessly with your hands and feet, you will only sink deeper: The Strait of Hormuz will only open with ‘Iranian regulations,’ not with American threats.”
Chief negotiator Ghalibaf on June 21st at Bürgenstock.Image: keystone
The Strait of Hormuz is at the center of the conflict between the USA and Iran. Reopening them and restoring freedom of navigation for commercial vessels have long become the primary goal of the Trump administration, which fears little more than turbulence in the energy markets. For the regime in Tehran, control over the strait is an indispensable part of any agreement to end the war.
Southern bypass route
Restoring unimpeded navigation through the Strait of Hormuz was a key provision in the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. But the contradictory interpretation of the clauses on the Strait of Hormuz is now causing the agreement to collapse. The MoU obliges Iran to allow ships safe passage through the strait. Shortly after the signing, however, Iranian representatives accused the USA of violating the agreement. The accusation was that Washington had directed ships via a southern route near the Omani coast without Tehran’s consent.
In fact, the Gulf states and the US set up such a bypass route without much fanfare after Iran set up a toll gate in the strait during the war. Millions of barrels of oil were smuggled past the barrier via this route. Apparently at the beginning of July almost a quarter of all daily passages through the strait – currently the number is around a third of the pre-war numbers – took place via this temporary, very narrow southern route, which is coordinated by Oman, the UN and the International Maritime Organization (IMO). However, the northern route, a designated corridor in Iranian waters in the northern part of the strait near Larak Island, is used, according to data from the ship tracking company Plumber almost a third of the ships.
Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian-controlled route runs in the north of the strait, the one near the Omani coast in the south. Image: Getty Images North America
Nevertheless, the question arises as to why Iran initiated the current round of escalation with its attacks on merchant ships. After all, after the signing of the MoU, there was widespread opinion that the agreement amounted to an Iranian victory. Were the attacks carried out as a provocation out of the belief that Trump would not dare to strike back? Middle East expert Guido Steinberg told cash.ch: “I can’t imagine that these are errors.” It is a clear strategy on the part of Tehran, which wants to force ships to coordinate with Iran when crossing the strait. Although the Strait of Hormuz should actually be open, Iran wants to cement control over it.
Frustration in Tehran
Senior U.S. officials say the escalation comes as more radical forces within Iran’s fragmented leadership become frustrated. They believe that the MoU has not brought any real benefits to Iran. After a significant number of ships took the southern route, Tehran became increasingly aware that its own influence in the Strait of Hormuz was dwindling. “The Iranians are shooting because it turns out that they are losing: they thought they would immediately open the strait from their side and at the same time slow down access for Western ships. In practice the opposite happened.”
In addition, Iran had difficulty selling oil despite the temporary suspension of sanctions. Despite offering deep discounts, Tehran was unable to sell a barrel of oil because financial institutions did not approve the transactions. And since he had not yet taken the nuclear measures required by the MoU, no frozen Iranian funds were released.
Probably no change to the status quo
Despite Trump’s declaration that the agreement is over, it is unlikely that the status quo will change significantly in the next few weeks. The midterm elections in the USA are still approaching, and Trump is likely to look towards them with increasing nervousness. Energy markets will continue to react nervously to events in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is likely to continue to shy away from a return to full-scale warfare because it would not bring him the results he wants – and certainly not in the time he wants.
The recent escalation has already led to an increase in fuel prices, here in Myanmar. Image: keystone
A return to extensive bombing raids or even more far-reaching military actions by the USA is therefore highly unlikely. However, there is currently no agreement in sight that would put an end to Iran’s nuclear program. If diplomatic efforts to revive the MoU fail, the US will likely rely even more heavily on the Omani route, while Iran will do everything it can to direct shipping traffic through its toll gate. The sanctions that have been reinstated will cause considerable problems for Tehran; The Iranian economy, which has already been hit hard, could slowly but surely be strangled. In US security circles it is assumed that the complete economic collapse of Iran and thus also of the regime is likely to occur by the end of 2026 or a few months later if the sanctions remain unchanged.
Of course, all of this remains speculation. Given the US President’s erratic foreign policy, the situation remains volatile. Trump’s next Truth Social post could celebrate the MoU as a great success again. Or announce the next attacks on Iran.