As the crisis in Cuba worsens, the United States is looking for a way to bring about a change of power.Image: keystone
Cuba’s economy seems to be at its end, the USA wants a regime change. Will they bring this about themselves or will the state collapse soon? Four scenarios as to what could happen next.
May 22, 2026, 6:15 p.mMay 22, 2026, 6:15 p.m
The USA is bringing about a change of government
That speaks for it
Cuba’s communist government is a thorn in the side of the Trump administration. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, whose parents come from Cuba, recently stated that they want to change that. He spoke of a “new Cuba” in which it was not just the Communist Party that was experiencing prosperity. The USA also wants to open the Cuban market to foreign companies, and the Russian and Chinese secret services should also disappear from the country.
The USA is therefore also putting the country under pressure. After the arrest of Venezuela’s ruler Nicolas Maduro, they ensured that oil deliveries to Cuba were stopped. Since then, many people have been largely without electricity. This week, US Attorney General Todd Blanche also announced that 94-year-old former head of state Raúl Castro will be charged with the shooting down of two small aircraft in 1996. Sanctions for foreign companies doing business in Cuba are also intended to increase the pressure.
And finally, the US showed that it can do it just in January, when it arrested Maduro in Venezuela and brought him to the US, where he was charged. Delcy Rodriguez then took over the reins in the country and has so far cooperated with the USA.
That speaks against it
It’s not that simple after all. A forced transition of power could bring instability to the country, explains Michael Shifter, a professor of Latin American studies at Georgetown University BBC. And that is not what the USA wants.
The problem: While in Venezuela the then vice president was ready to take the lead, there is no such person in Cuba. “I don’t think there is an obvious Delcy Rodriguez in Cuba, and power works differently in Cuba than it does in Venezuela,” Shifter said.
A new war
That speaks for it
As is well known, US President Trump is not sparing with threats. This is no different in the case of Cuba. However, he is still trying to negotiate a deal. Nevertheless, it is known that US military surveillance flights have taken place around Cuba in recent weeks. The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is also said to be on its way to Cuba.
Meanwhile, the Cuban government counters that it will defend itself in the event of an attack. According to Axios Cuba owns over 300 military drones from Iran and Russia. In addition, plans are said to have already been made to attack the US base at Guantanamo Bay and US military ships.
That speaks against it
According to Axios, the USA is currently not expecting an attack from Cuba. They are more likely to suspect that they are preparing should relations deteriorate. In any case, the USA does not seem to view Cuba as a major military threat. “Nobody is worried about fighter jets from Cuba. “It’s not even clear if they even have one that can fly,” a US official is quoted as saying in the report.
Even if Secretary Rubio said loudly on Friday BBC has described Cuba as a “threat to national security,” and the US is still trying to do so through diplomatic channels. Ultimately, Trump could ultimately ruin his own people if he were to launch a new military operation. The Iran war is already causing massive criticism in the USA. “The American people do not want another war. “It wants us to focus on building housing in Arizona, not on bombing houses in Havana,” said Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego CNN.
Cuba collapses
That speaks for it
The country is already running on the edge. The humanitarian crisis is getting worse, people are without electricity, without running water and without enough food. There are protests in the country and the discontent is getting louder. Accordingly, Trump is also sure that he can practically watch, as he recently said to the media: “The country is falling apart. It’s a disaster, they’ve partially lost control.” He therefore sees no reason to intervene and let the situation escalate. That is simply unnecessary.
That speaks against it
The same applies here: it’s not that simple. Shifter tells the BBC: “You have to differentiate between the Cuban economy and the Cuban government.” The state continues to function even in the event of an economic collapse.
And if this collapse actually occurs, the US will have a new problem. Because then many Cubans are likely to flee the country; it is expected that they could move towards the USA. But Cuban immigrants are already confronted with stricter asylum regulations.
US arrests Raul Castro in Cuba
That speaks for it
Following the former president’s indictment, there were suggestions that the US might arrest Castro itself. The Cuban government described the charges as “politically motivated” and “a pretext for military intervention.” Since the US had already gotten Maduro out of Venezuela in January, speculation about a new operation has now been fueled.
And this speculation is being fueled by US politicians. For example, Florida Senator Rick Scott said according to the BBC: “The same thing that happened to Maduro should happen to Raúl Castro.”
That speaks against it
So far, US President Donald Trump has denied that there are such plans. And even if it does, the question arises: What’s the point of that? Castro no longer has any real power. It is more symbolic. The Cuban government would not be particularly weakened by Castro’s arrest. Or as Adam Isacson, regional expert at the NGO Washington Office on Latin America, explains to the BBC: “I don’t think it would have much influence on the power structures in Cuba. The Castro dynasty is influential, but not so central to what it built.”
Another point: Castro is already 94 years old. Age presents a risk. The lack of strategic benefit would mean that it is all about humiliation. The USA should know from the past that Cuba is not to be trifled with: after all, one goal of the Cuban revolution was to break away from American dependence. And even today the US government cannot expect to be welcomed at least by parts of the population, as was the case in Venezuela.