Most headline polls ask voters which party they will vote for, and these results tend to show small shifts from one survey to the next. This poll looked at who voters expect to win the next election — capturing a different sense of the national mood to show the scale of the impact Burnham’s arrival has made on British politics.
The transformation in Labour’s credibility as an electoral force suggests the gamble the party’s MPs took in forcing Starmer out after a disastrous set of local and regional elections in May has paid off so far. Not only do headline voting intention polls now frequently put Labour narrowly in the lead, but the Public First results show the “Burnham bounce” has been noticed by voters, too.
“Before Andy Burnham arrived on the Westminster scene, there was a sense that a Reform government was inevitable — that has now gone,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “In an election where tactical voting could decide many key constituencies, being seen to be able to win could be just as important for Labour as being popular.”
Reform’s image is diminishing
For Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform UK, fortunes have reversed. Four months ago, almost two-thirds — 65% — said Reform had a genuine chance of winning, but that figure has now dropped to 47% in this month’s poll, after a succession of negative headlines over alleged funding scandals and a special election in his seat.
Even so, more people believe Reform can still win the next election than think the party is completely out of the running.
The Conservatives, however, remain deep in trouble, according to the poll: More voters discount them as realistic contenders for power than say they have a chance of victory.