Threatening retaliation: Iranian clerics at a memorial event for Iranians killed in the war in Tehran.Image: keystone
While Washington and Tehran are negotiating a framework agreement in Qatar, US forces are again attacking targets in Iran. At the same time, Israel is escalating the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The fragile ceasefire threatens to collapse – and with it the hope for rapid stabilization in the Middle East.
May 26, 2026, 9:45 p.mMay 26, 2026, 9:45 p.m
New US attacks in southern Iran and an escalation in Lebanon are overshadowing the ongoing negotiations to end the Iran war. In the past 48 hours, the US military said it attacked missile sites and boats attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The regional command spoke according to the Washington Post of “self-defense” to protect American troops from threats from Iranian forces.
Tehran reacted sharply. Iran’s Foreign Ministry described Tuesday’s attacks as a “flagrant violation” of the ceasefire and threatened to leave no “hostile act unanswered.” The ceasefire between the USA and Iran, which has been in effect since the beginning of April, appears increasingly fragile.
At the same time, talks in Qatar are continuing. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on the sidelines of a visit to India that there was currently “a lot of back and forth” about the wording of a possible framework agreement. President Donald Trump will accept “either a good deal or no deal,” the New York Times quoted him as saying.
SECRETARY RUBIO: The straits have to be opened. What’s happening there is illegal. It’s unsustainable for the world and it’s unacceptable. pic.twitter.com/5lQHIxjnNK
— Department of State (@StateDept) May 26, 2026
The focus of the discussions is the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Around a fifth of the world’s oil trade passes through the strait. After the attacks by the USA and Israel at the end of February, Iran massively restricted shipping traffic there.
What is happening there now is “illegal” and “unacceptable,” Rubio continued. The prospect of new tensions caused the price of oil to rise again: Brent oil rose in price at times by around three percent to just under $99 per barrel.
The Trump administration is apparently relying on a phased approach: First, the ceasefire should be extended and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz secured. The more difficult issues – Iran’s nuclear program, missile arsenal and support for regional militias – would be negotiated later. Analysts see this according to the New York Times a risky model with parallels to the stalled Gaza negotiations, in which key points of conflict have remained unresolved to this day.
Panic in Lebanon after Israeli attacks
The situation in Lebanon is creating additional pressure. Israel intensified its attacks on Hezbollah. According to the DPA agency, more than 100 targets were attacked in the Bekaa Valley and the south of the country on Tuesday, killing at least twelve people. In Beirut, loudly booming Israeli drone flights caused fear and panic.
After calls for evacuation by the Israeli army, numerous residents left their homes and hospitals brought patients to safety.
Observers warn that further escalation between Israel and Hezbollah could further complicate negotiations. Tehran demands that a possible framework agreement cover not only the war with the USA and Israel, but also the conflict in Lebanon. At the same time, Iran is demanding the release of frozen assets in Qatar.
According to the Iranian news agency Tasnim, twelve billion dollars will initially be transferred, the rest within a 60-day transition period. Trump, for his part, insists that Iran’s highly enriched uranium must be “destroyed” or handed over to the United States. (aargauerzeitung.ch)