The arrest of Venezuela’s President Maduro is more than a blow to a regime – it threatens Russia’s oil alliances and thus a central lever of Putin’s influence.
Jan 5, 2026, 8:25 a.mJan 5, 2026, 8:25 a.m
Anna-Lena Janzen / t-online
The US military operation in Venezuela has also caused a stir in the Kremlin. On Saturday, US troops kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The US government accuses him of, among other things, drug trafficking. While Washington is talking about the fight against antitrust, Russia also sees this as an attack on its geopolitical interests.
Marco Rubio at the press conference after the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro.Image: keystone
Moscow reacted sharply and called on the US to release Maduro and his wife. “We urge the American leadership to reconsider its position and release the legally elected president of the sovereign country and his wife,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Saturday. The US actions are “deeply disturbing and reprehensible”.
With the fall of the Venezuelan dictator, a multi-billion dollar network of energy agreements, through which Russia had secured its political influence in Latin America for years, is also beginning to falter. It was only in November 2025 that Venezuela’s state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) extended a 15-year contract with a subsidiary of the Russian company Roszarubezhneft. The agreement was intended to ensure Russian companies not only access to production, but also to infrastructure projects in the crisis-plagued oil state. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world.
Trump is urging US oil companies to invest in Venezuela
According to an analysis by the French newspaper “Le Monde”, this deal may now have been effectively cancelled. According to US President Donald Trump’s wishes, US companies should now enter the oil business in Venezuela on a large scale and revive the country’s ailing oil facilities.
US President Donald Trump.Image: keystone
The Reuters news agency reported, citing insiders, that the US government was urging American oil companies to make extensive investments in the country. This is the condition for receiving compensation for assets confiscated two decades ago. At that time, companies like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips left Venezuela.
The joint venture agreement between PDVSA and the Russian Roszarubezhneft subsidiary appears to be off the table. The Russian oil company Rosneft had been involved in Venezuela for years. CEO Igor Sechin – a close confidant of ruler Putin – emphasized at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in June 2025 that Russia, Venezuela and Iran together had over a third of the world’s oil reserves. This energy partnership has now become fragile.
US access to Venezuela’s oil fields could also have a direct impact on the global market. If Washington succeeds in ramping up production again, there is a risk of a drop in prices, which would particularly hit raw material exporters like Russia hard – a country that is already economically weakened by war costs and sanctions. Before the US attack, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Moscow Foundation for National Energy Security, said on a Russian financial portal: “It is important for us economically and politically that Maduro remains firm.” A quick overthrow of the dictator would be the “worst case,” said Yushkov.
The current Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.Image: keystone
Political consultant Peter Rough from the conservative US think tank Hudson Institute sees the operation as a targeted strike against a Russian zone of influence. Maduro was a key partner of Putin in the region, the analyst told the newspaper Le Monde. As recently as May 2025, Maduro took part in the celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II in Moscow – an appearance that was seen at the time as a demonstrative signal to the West. Maduro’s kidnapping sends a clear signal, said Rough: Venezuela’s air defense – which essentially consisted of Russian weapons systems – and political agreements were ineffective in the face of American power.
“Political slap in the face for Putin.”
The Russian Finance Ministry had expected a price of $59 per barrel of Urals oil for 2026. If the price continues to fall, civil servant salaries, war financing and other state resources will come under pressure. Shortly after the US military operation, oil prices fell. A barrel (159 liters) of Brent oil cost around 51.6 euros at the start of trading in Asia on Monday – and fell by around 0.6 percent. The price for a barrel of the US variety West Texas Intermediate fell by 0.7 percent to just under 51.2 euros.
Oil plantation in West Texas.Image: AP/The Texas Tribune
Moscow continues to use its oil revenues as an important source of financing for its war of aggression against Ukraine. The Ukrainian military expert Andrii Ryzhenko described the US actions in the Ukrainian media as a “political slap in the face for Putin”. For years, Russia has invested resources, political capital and diplomatic support in Venezuela. That fizzled out with the military strike.
“Le Monde” quoted the Russian political scientist Kirill Rogov as assessing that the US mission would reverberate deep in the Kremlin: “Trump has shown determination and willingness to escalate – that will alarm the Russian establishment.”
The fact that Trump not only had Maduro arrested, but also held out the prospect of intervention in Iran or Colombia, is also causing further unrest. On his Truth Social platform, the US President wrote that they would also intervene in Tehran if the violence against protesters continued to escalate. Iran – like Venezuela, a close partner of Moscow – is once again the focus of geopolitical tensions.
Zelensky hopes
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj commented on Maduro’s kidnapping with hope: “If you can do something like that with dictators, then America knows what to do next,” he said, referring to Vladimir Putin. The allusion to possible US action against Moscow was hard to ignore.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. Image: keystone
But it shouldn’t come to that. US President Donald Trump also appeared increasingly irritated by Putin’s latest tactics. The Russian president is said to have told him over the telephone about an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on his residence in Novgorod – but according to US secret services without any evidence. Trump then declared: “I’m not enthusiastic about Putin. He kills too many people.” At the same time, he emphasized that he had not mentioned the mission in Venezuela at all during the conversation.
A direct confrontation between the USA and Russia remains unlikely. “The USA will not attack a nuclear power,” Russia expert Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean from the French institute IFRI told Le Monde. François Heisbourg from IISS London is also convinced: “Putin has nothing to fear from Trump.”
New escalation – same border crossing?
The US attack could even play into the hands of Vladimir Putin. The Maduro case highlights possible double standards in the West. European diplomats worry whether the claim to condemn invasions that violate international law, such as Russia’s, remains credible – when at the same time the USA assumes the right to arrest a foreign president and take him out of the country.
The action in Venezuela could be read as a justification for Russian actions in Ukraine. This is a welcome narrative for the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to see himself “encouraged to continue his aggressive course in Ukraine,” said Princeton historian Herold James to the “Handelsblatt”.
Did the USA violate international law?
The question of whether the USA has violated international law is answered by experts with a unanimous yes. The attack on Venezuela represents a clear violation of international law, said Holger Hestermeyer, who teaches international law and EU law at the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna, in an interview with the German Press Agency. “First and foremost, it violates a fundamental principle of the UN Charter, the prohibition of the use of force,” explained the scientist.
The kidnapping of the president clearly violated international law. (symbol image)Image: keystone
The charter deliberately only allows very limited exceptions, particularly for self-defense. The US government will rely on this with the argument of drug smuggling, but the right of self-defense is limited to an armed attack and such an attack does not exist. Trump’s announcement that he now wants to control Venezuela from outside also violates the ban on intervention, which is anchored in both customary law and the Charter of the Organization of American States (OAS).
Moscow’s Foreign Ministry officially condemned the US action as “aggression” without any legal basis. If the Trump administration were to once again take up geopolitical claims in addition to Venezuela, such as a possible US occupation of Greenland, this could create ideal conditions from the Kremlin’s perspective: as it would deepen the division between the US and Europe and increase polarization within the US itself.