Now staying permanently in Lithuania: German Bundeswehr soldiers (May 29, 2024).Image: Photo library
Secret services warn that Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin could test Western defense will by 2028. But maybe he will do it much earlier. People in Eastern European countries have already prepared. An overview.
May 30, 2026, 8:27 p.mMay 30, 2026, 8:30 p.m
Remo Hess, Brussels / ch media
Russia is increasingly firing on NATO’s eastern flank. In recent weeks it has “hijacked” Ukrainian long-range drones several times and redirected them to the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. In Romania, a Russian attack drone hit a residential building on Friday night.
Is it all just psychological games? Or is Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin actually preparing the field for one hostile operation against eastern EU countries before? Western secret services have been saying for some time that he could dare to do that. So far the time horizon has been around the end of the decade. But perhaps Putin will dare to do it sooner.
Especially because the war in Ukraine is not going well for the Russians at the moment. To justify mass mobilization, Putin could escalate and use a pretext to invade one of the eastern EU countries, according to the current scenario in security circles.
The three Baltic states are in the crosshairs first and foremost. To this day, Russia has never really digested its independence and Western orientation.
Geographically they are very exposed: only a small land corridor, the so-called Suwalki gapconnects them with Poland and NATO territory. If Putin attacks, there is a good chance he will do it here.
But the Balts and NATO have prepared. These are the four most important countermeasures:
Reinforcement
NATO previously pursued a “tripwire” strategy in its eastern alliance area: several hundred multinational troops were stationed at critical points. Their presence was primarily symbolic and intended as a deterrent. If Putin attacks anyway, this automatically leads to war with the entire alliance. But in recent years, NATO has changed its approach. Now it’s all about effective territorial defense again. Instead of battalions, brigades are formed.
The German Panzer Brigade 45 in Lithuania is an example of this. It entered service in 2025 and will reach its full complement of 5,000 soldiers in 2027. It is a fully operational combat unit equipped with Leopard 2 main battle tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles. Historically, it is a novelty because it is the first time since the Second World War that a large German unit is permanently stationed abroad.
Analogous to the German Panzer Brigade 45, a multinational NATO brigade under Canadian leadership is stationed in Latvia.
Strategic hedging
While in the east and south the view is directed towards the border with Russia, the Baltic States have the Baltic Sea behind them. The nearby Swedish island of Gotland plays a special role. If Russia were to occupy it, it could cut off supplies to the Baltics both by air and by sea. Conversely, NATO can operate from Gotland Block the Russian Baltic Fleet’s access to the Atlantic. Gotland is considered an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” and has enormous strategic importance.
Since Sweden joined NATO two years ago, the island has been developed into a modern fortress. Once demilitarized, Sweden has reactivated the “Gotland Regiment”. It will soon have 4,500 men, plus rotating NATO troops. State-of-the-art anti-aircraft defense and anti-ship missiles are installed on the island. The 60,000 residents rehearse the disaster in their everyday lives in order to be prepared against Russian sabotage. The numerous incidents surrounding damaged internet cables in the Baltic Sea show that these are taking place. But Russia also repeatedly tests NATO in the region with targeted airspace violations.
Fasteners
The three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are building a species together “Defense wall” on the 1,700 kilometer long border with Russia and Belarus. This is staggered and consists of anti-tank barriers, so-called “dragon teeth”, anti-tank ditches, minefields and bunkers. Elsewhere, natural obstacles such as lakes and swamps make it difficult for the Russians to invade. The goal is always to have one to slow the Russian advance and to gain time until NATO reinforcements arrive. Poland has also already sealed off its border with Belarus or is building border fortifications.
Poland’s reinforced border.
In Lithuania around the Suwalki Corridor, bridges and other critical transport infrastructure are being prepared to quickly blown up or blocked in an emergency can be. At the same time, a new railway line “Rail Baltica” is being built, which will connect the Estonian capital Tallinn from north to south through the Baltics with Warsaw. This has both military and economic importance.
Spiritual national defense
All preparations are of no use if the population does not participate. The key word is: resilience of society as a whole. Latvia introduced the “State Defense Service” for all men aged 18 and over in 2023. In Lithuania, the most populous of the three Baltic countries with 2.8 million inhabitants, so-called command offices were set up in 2024 to complement the army’s structures at the local level. In addition, disinformation is viewed as a concrete field of attack. The Baltics have always been an area of activity for Russian propaganda. Governments are investing a lot in education and media literacy.
The principle of security as a whole-of-society approach has probably been perfected in Finland, where it is kokonaisturvallisuus is already a kind of national sport.