Good news for the summer holidays: Aviation fuel is unlikely to run out this summer – but there is still a risk of turbulence.
May 25, 2026, 05:41May 25, 2026, 05:41
The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked – which has triggered a global oil shock. The only thing that is certain is that this shock is now affecting the global economy. However, it is difficult for experts to predict exactly how the economy will react, which parts will hold up and which will collapse.
There was still enough: In April, a man at Zurich Airport filled the tank of a Swiss plane with kerosene fuel.Image: keystone
For a long time, the supply of aviation fuel was a particular concern. The price for it shot up globally far higher than that for crude oil. In the meantime, it reached a high of $230 per barrel – even surpassing the record set in 2022, when Europe was plunged into an energy crisis by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The concerns seemed to be confirmed when Lufthansa announced that it would be canceling around 20,000 flights by October.
That was in April. About four weeks later, however, the situation is looking much better. There is one main reason for this: the market is playing. The high prices have triggered a counter-reaction: oil refineries around the world have significantly increased their production of aviation fuel.
The price of aviation fuel is now significantly lower again: no longer at $230 per barrel, but currently at around $160. That is still comparatively high. However, it is no longer a shrill warning signal that the world is about to run out of jet fuel. A summer holiday grounding of European air traffic is apparently no longer to be feared.
One of the largest Asian airlines, Cathay Pacific, has already been able to reduce its fuel surcharges again. And the airline industry itself is sounding more confident again. For example, the CEO of IAG, owner of British Airways, said:
“We are currently not expecting any interruption in supply or any delivery bottlenecks in the summer.”
Overall, one could summarize the situation for Europe as Javier Blas, energy expert for the Bloomberg news agency, does. Of course, the war in Iran could escalate again and the worst scenario could occur. But if not, the market is playing well enough to keep most planes in the air.
“No, the Iran war will not ground your European holiday flight.”
It’s not the aviation fuel that could be in short supply, but the money
The boss of the low-cost airline Ryanair is also confident. In an interview with “Bloomberg”, 65-year-old Michael O’Leary responded with a laugh when asked whether he had ever experienced a crisis like today’s:
«Of course, such crises hit our industry on a regular basis. Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the second Gulf War, the first Gulf War, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.”
O’Leary also has a clear answer to the question of when Europe will run out of jet fuel. “That won’t happen.” That was a big concern in April, but no longer. He met all of his suppliers in Paris last week.
“There will be no problems until the end of September.”
This means that aviation fuel supplies can apparently be removed from the list of possible breaking points in the global energy system. The fact that it quickly got on the danger list and quickly disappeared again is due to its special properties.
Storing aviation fuel is technically more complex and therefore more expensive than storing car fuel. It is therefore transported as directly as possible to the airports and filled into the machines. Therefore, when something goes wrong in the world, something more often goes wrong in this system.
At the same time, failures in aviation fuel can be replaced more easily. This is because jet fuel accounts for a much smaller share of global oil demand than gasoline or diesel. Almost four times less. It is therefore enough if the oil refineries just produce a little less gasoline and a little more aviation fuel – the market will be balanced again. With aviation fuel prices so high, refineries were happy to produce more of it at a rapid pace.
However, all of this does not mean that all passengers will reach their holiday destinations this summer without any turbulence. The airlines should not run out of aviation fuel. What some smaller airlines could run out of this summer, however, is money.
Such failing airlines are a concern for expert Blas, and for Ryanair boss O’Leary an opportunity to resort to macabre imagery.
Blas writes that he can imagine that some tour operators with their own airlines could fail. Namely when they have to stock up on aviation fuel at the current high prices, but have already sold their trips at low prices beforehand. Such bankruptcies would then have consequences for customers: their flights would be canceled.
The fuse is lit – and no one steps on it
O’Leary even says:
“Some unsound competitors will be carried out in coffins.”
Their downfall is that they have not protected themselves against rising oil prices and are up to their ears in debt. He would not take over such failing airlines. «There is nothing you want to buy in Europe. It’s all crap.”
As usual, clear words: Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary.Image: keystone
This is what it looks like for summer. What has been true for almost three months now applies to autumn: everything depends on when the Strait of Hormuz is open again. If it is still closed in the fall, Europe will still have enough aviation fuel available, according to O’Leary. But it will have been so expensive for so long that many airlines will collapse under the burden. “Airlines all over Europe will go bankrupt.”
Given such dire consequences, many oil analysts are surprised at how relaxed the Western world is about the Iran war. For veteran US analyst Paul Sankey, for example, it seems “as if a long fuse was burning into a bomb – and no one stepped on it.” (aargauerzeitung.ch)