Russian President Putin (r.) and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan (l.): Armenia has suspended its membership in the Russian-led military alliance CSTO.Image: imago
When Armenia elects a new parliament, more is at stake than the future of the small Caucasus republic. Vladimir Putin is also likely to be looking forward to Yerevan.
June 7, 2026, 4:16 p.mJune 7, 2026, 4:16 p.m
Tobias Schibilla, Julian Alexander Fischer / t-online
Armenia will elect a new parliament on June 7th – and possibly also a new geopolitical homeland. The vote in the small Caucasus country, which lies between Georgia, Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan, is more than a domestic political decision. It is a stress test for Vladimir Putin’s residual influence in a region that he long viewed as a secure back yard.
Turkey is already a member of NATO, while Azerbaijan maintains close relations with Ankara and Israel. Although a pro-Kremlin government governs Georgia, the people protest weekly against Moscow’s influence in the country.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan formally maintains solid relations with Vladimir Putin, but in recent years he has become increasingly oriented towards the West. The Armenian capital Yerevan recently hosted the summit of the European Political Community, and numerous politicians such as Emmanuel Macron were greeted at public appearances, some with frenetic cheers.
The election on June 7th will not only be a test of sentiment for Pashinyan, but could also mean a final realignment of Armenian foreign policy: away from Russia and towards the EU.
Russia disappoints its former ally
The strategic importance of Armenia can be seen by looking at the map of the region. The country lies at the interface between Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. Anyone who has influence here controls potential transit routes for energy and goods and can influence neighboring conflict zones. Russia has claimed this position since the collapse of the Soviet Union and has backed this claim with military bases and close economic ties.
Emmanuel Macron in Yerevan: The EU is getting closer.Image: Imago
But this relationship has changed in recent years. The erosion of good relations began in 2020, when Armenia was attacked by Azerbaijan and lost about a third of its territory. Russia made no move to bring the Azerbaijanis to reason, even though Armenia was at least formally under Russian protection as part of the Moscow military alliance CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization).
Three years later, Azerbaijan captured the remaining Armenian-populated enclave within 24 hours. Around 100,000 Armenians were expelled, and again Russia didn’t move.
Armenia finds new allies
As a result, Armenia sought new allies, particularly in the import of weapons and other military equipment. According to figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), Armenia imported 94 percent of its military technology from Russia between 2011 and 2020; in 2024, Moscow was only responsible for around ten percent of Armenian arms imports.
Yerevan’s new allies are India and France. According to Sipri figures, Armenia imported around 43 percent of its military technology from the Indian subcontinent in 2024. Another large part of the imports comes from Paris, where Yerevan primarily purchased radar systems, anti-aircraft technology and Caesar artillery pieces. The numbers show: Nikol Pashinyan has changed geopolitical course since the traumatic military defeats of the early 2020s.
Nikol Pashinyan (r.), Prime Minister of Armenia, with EU Council President Antonio Costa (m.) and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: EU and Armenia are getting closer.Image: Imago, press office of the prime minister of Armenia
And so Armenia has moved significantly closer to the EU in recent years, even before the most recent summit in Yerevan. As early as 2024, the EU announced a package of 270 million euros and passed a resolution that declared Armenian EU membership to be possible in principle.
Last year, Armenia’s parliament passed a law to formally initiate the EU accession process. In addition, Armenia formally joined the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which means that Putin, who was convicted there, would have to be arrested if he visited Armenia.
Russia responds with sanctions and threats
In Russia, this development is being perceived with increasing nervousness. And so they recently tried to put pressure on the Armenian government. According to observers, the Kremlin intervened in the election campaign with a disinformation campaign and supported Pashinyan’s opponent candidates who were close to Russia.
Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pashinyan (2nd from right) at a meeting in Moscow: The distance is growing.Image: Imago, Russian Foreign Ministry’s official
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also recently intensified his threats. He warned that Pashinyan could not sit on two chairs at the same time and would have to choose between East and West. He blamed Ukraine for the developments. The “Ukrainian scenario” began with Kiev’s attempt to join the EU, said the Kremlin chief. Moscow later recalled its ambassador to Armenia for “consultations.”
Armenia is economically dependent
And Russia is also putting pressure on the economy. The country will lose at least 14 percent of its gross domestic product if gas prices are raised after the country leaves the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Putin said on the sidelines of an EAEU summit in Kazakhstan. “Of course there will no longer be such discounts as today.”
Meanwhile, the Russian Energy Ministry has openly threatened Armenia with termination of a favorable gas supply contract. That would hit the country hard. Last year, the country imported 82 percent of its gas needs from Russia.
Russian authorities have also banned the import of flowers and a number of foodstuffs. Most recently, the agricultural inspectorate also banned the import of Armenian fish.
Military base in Gyumri: The location is important for Russia.Image: Imago, Alexander Patrin
Economically, Armenia remains heavily dependent on Russia. Last year, Russia accounted for around a third of Armenia’s foreign trade, the EU only eleven percent. Nevertheless, Brussels wants to step into this gap and, following Russia’s measures, announced not only financial aid worth more than 50 million euros, but also import relief for Armenian products that are targeted by Russia.
Russia needs the military presence in Armenia
Armenia is particularly important for Russia militarily. A renewal of the 1995 military agreement ensures Russia a presence until 2044. The 102nd military base in Gyumri is Russia’s only permanent military presence in the South Caucasus and is therefore an irreplaceable outpost. Not least because it is only 15 kilometers from the Turkish border and is therefore in close proximity to NATO territory. Up to 5,000 soldiers are said to be stationed there, as well as MiG-29 fighter jets and S-300 air defense systems.
But this presence is shaky. After the lack of support in the conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenia put its membership in the CSTO military alliance on hold and froze all payments. Last year, Pashinyan said that leaving the alliance was now more likely than rejoining. In addition, Armenia is planning joint military exercises with the USA for the third time in August. Russia calls this “not conducive” to trust.
There is a lot at stake for Putin. And from the Russian perspective, the prospects are poor. Because Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party are leading the polls. Because of the electoral system, he is likely to win a governing majority. It may well be that Armenia will distance itself further from Russia after the election.
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