Saber rattling in the Gulf: The US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln in the Strait of Hormuz.Archive image: keystone
The danger of war in the Gulf is increasing, and the question arises again as to whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz – and what consequences that would have.
February 21, 2026, 7:55 p.mFebruary 21, 2026, 7:55 p.m
On the Persian Gulf the signs point to war: Negotiations in the nuclear dispute between the USA and Iran are at an impasse, Washington is moving additional military units to the region, the mullahs’ regime is strengthening its armed forces and has the Revolutionary Guards during a naval exercise the Strait of Hormuz temporarily closed.
Iranian naval exercises in the strait in February 2026. Image: keystone
The fear that this strategically and globally important waterway could be blocked in the event of war is not new – last summer, for example, during the twelve-day Israeli-Iranian war the charter prices for oil tankers clearly visible in the Strait of Hormuz. At that time, however, there were no significant Iranian actions against shipping traffic in the waterway.
Why is this maritime bottleneck so important – and what consequences would a blockage have?
Where is the Strait of Hormuz?
The Strait of Hormuz is a major waterway between Iran in the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates in the south, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. Image: Watson
The narrowest point between the islands of Larak (Iran) and Quoin (Oman) is only about 38 kilometers. Two shipping lanes, each just under four kilometers wide, lead through the narrowest part of the strait.
Why is it so important?
The Strait of Hormuz is the only maritime access to the Persian Gulf – all shipping traffic to and from the oil ports of Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates passes through this bottleneck. Saudi Arabia’s most important oil ports are also located in the Gulf; the kingdom only has a few alternative ports on the Red Sea. All of them, including Iran, export the majority of their crude oil across the strait – primarily to Asia.
Last year, according to data from the market research company Plumber An average of around 13 million barrels (1 barrel = 159 liters) of crude oil is transported through this main artery of the world’s oil supply every day – that corresponds to about 31 percent of global sea transport of crude oil.
In 2023 the volume was even higher, with the chart below including other petroleum liquids in addition to crude oil. Only in the Strait of Malacca was the volume higher:
Around a fifth of global liquefied gas trade is also carried out via this route – Qatar, for example, exports almost all of its liquefied gas via this route. In the opposite direction, food is imported by road to supply the Gulf states. It is therefore of enormous strategic importance.
What consequences would a blockage have?
The oil price, which is currently around $70 per barrel for the North Sea Brent variety, could rise to $120 within a short period of time – this figure was mentioned loudly by economists Robin Winkler and Marc Schattenberg from Deutsche Bank Research Cash last June during the Israeli-Iranian War. Higher oil prices would increase energy prices, increase inflation and slow the economy. One would also have to expect rising inflation in Switzerland.
According to experts, only a longer-term failure of the oil-exporting countries in the Gulf could happen trigger an international economic crisis. However, this is not a compelling scenario as other countries such as Canada, the USA or Norway could increase their oil production volumes. However, Russia would also benefit from higher energy prices and expand its production volumes.
It’s not just oil that’s transported here: container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Image: keystone
However, the oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf, particularly Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, who do not have viable alternative routes, would certainly be hit hard. Iran itself, which ships around one and a half million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz every day and absolutely needs the income from these exports, would also be affected. However, the major energy importers in Asia, primarily China, India, Japan and South Korea, would also be affected. Significantly more than four-fifths of the oil and liquefied natural gas shipped through the Strait of Hormuz went there in 2024.
A longer-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would therefore severely strain the mullahs’ regime’s relations with China, which is Iran’s only oil buyer. However, Tehran’s relations with the Arab Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have only been painstakingly improved in recent years, would also suffer. Riyadh already distrusts the Shiite mullahs’ regime and sees Iran as a regional rival.
Are there alternative routes?
The Arab Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been looking for alternative routes to avoid the Strait of Hormuz in recent years. Saudi Arabia operates the East-West crude oil pipeline, which has a capacity of 5 million barrels per day. The Emirates has a pipeline connecting its oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal on the Gulf of Oman.
However, the capacities of these alternative routes are still significantly limited: according to American estimates Energy Information Administration (EIA) In the event of a disruption to the sea route, around 2.6 million barrels of crude oil per day could be available to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Were there already blockages on the road?
The threat of blocking shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a means of exerting pressure in Iranian foreign policy. Already during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s (the First Gulf War), the Islamic Republic threatened to close the important sea route – even if this would have affected its own exports. In the so-called tanker war, both sides tried to disrupt the enemy’s exports by attacking tankers and merchant ships. The US registered Kuwaiti oil tankers under its flag during the war. They also protected energy transports through naval escorts in the Gulf.
Damage to a Saudi tanker after an Iraqi airstrike, 1984. Image: AP NY
Tehran also used the blockade threat as a means of pressure during the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program in 2011, and again the following year in response to American and European sanctions. In May 2019, four ships, including two Saudi tankers, were attacked off the coast of the United Arab Emirates – but outside the Strait of Hormuz. Britain, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain then joined a US-led maritime security coalition to protect shipping lanes.
In 2023 and 2024, Iran seized a total of three ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz. It was a retaliatory action for the US seizure of Iranian-related tankers.