The German historian Mattias Uhl believes that the warnings from politicians and security experts about an imminent Russian attack on Germany or another NATO country are exaggerated.
May 17, 2026, 9:04 a.mMay 17, 2026, 9:04 a.m
“It would be unwise to pay attention to those experts who tend to dramatize without really knowing Russia’s potential,” said the expert in an interview with the German Press Agency in Moscow.
North Macedonian NATO troops at a parade. (archive image)Image: keystone
In his book “How strong is Russia really? The truth about Putin’s military power” (Herder) he warns of a “fatal arms race” for the West. He calls for a measured deterrence and for dialogue between the EU and Russia. The expert complains that numerous German experts in military and security issues have succumbed to Russian propaganda from the “second strongest army” in the world.
The German image is often based on misperceptions or myths.
“This leads to an overestimation of Russian capabilities and carries the risk of getting into a fatal arms spiral that will not bring NATO any advantages in the confrontation with Russia.”
Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin is trying to create the impression of the supposed strength of the Russian arms industry with weapons shows and missile tests. “But nothing is further from reality,” emphasizes Uhl in his book.
NATO was successful in the Cold War with a “less is more” strategy
Even in the Cold War, simply accumulating tanks and aircraft did not pay off. Rather, NATO scored points back then with its “less is more” strategy, with progress and technology, says Uhl, who lived in Russia for 20 years and worked there at the German Historical Institute in Moscow, which has since been declared “undesirable.”
“Europe and the USA won the Cold War precisely because they did not turn their countries into military camps,” explains the expert who works at the Max Weber Network for Eastern Europe.
“In fact, the West has already managed to bring down the Soviet Union and Russia without firing a shot.”
Even today it is obvious that “NATO is a sleeping bear that Russia can only nibble on gently.”
Uhl therefore does not consider statements by security experts that Russia could attack a NATO country as early as 2029 or even 2028 to be realistic. To deter Russia, he recommends long-range precision weapons such as rockets and further developments of the Taurus cruise missile. If the worst came to the worst, they could then “precisely destroy Russian military bases, airfields, depots and command bunkers.”
Kremlin leader Putin had repeatedly described allegations that he was planning to attack a NATO country after his invasion of Ukraine as “nonsense”. (sda/dpa)