Sweden warns: Putin could test the stability of NATO and the relationship with Trump “at any time” with little effort.
April 21, 2026, 05:22April 21, 2026, 05:24
Niels Anner / ch media
When security experts run through possible scenarios for a Russian attack in the Baltic Sea, Gotland, Bornholm and Saaremaa are usually mentioned. In addition to the Baltic, the large, strategically important islands are particularly at risk – so the Baltic Sea countries are heavily arming themselves there.
Will the alliance hold in an emergency? Sweden’s Commander-in-Chief Michael Claesson (left) at a security conference with the commanding NATO general in Europe, Alexus G Grynkewich.Image: keystone
Michael Claesson, the commander-in-chief of the Swedish armed forces, is now warning of another attack that Putin could carry out “at any time”: the occupation of a tiny island that has little to offer other than rock and a few trees.
“There are around 400,000 islands in the Baltic Sea, so it’s just a question of choice,” said Claesson in an interview with the British Times. The decisive factor is neither the military importance nor does such an operation have to be expensive. It’s just a matter of sending a signal with such a territorial violation and “waiting to see what happens politically.”
Test for the NATO alliance
Most of the islands in the Swedish and Finnish archipelago are very small, uninhabited rock formations. In contrast to a possible attack on the Baltics, it would be a limited military action; Possible perhaps with inflatable boats and a handful of commandos. Nevertheless, according to Claesson, it would be enough to test NATO’s cohesion: “I think you can challenge the alliance by occupying something.”
The archipelago off Stockholm and the archipelago off Finland.
The 61-year-old general had previously warned that Putin was prepared to “take enormous strategic risks,” as seen in Chechnya, Georgia and Crimea. In the case of a Baltic Sea island, it would now be a matter of testing whether NATO is even capable of “making a decision or not,” Claesson told the Lithuanian TV station LRT.
Could NATO respond to a provocation from Putin in a united manner – or would it expose its weakness? The question of a reaction in accordance with Article 5 of the Defense Alliance has become increasingly explosive in recent months and weeks.
There are considerable doubts in European capitals about how US President Trump would behave in an emergency, after he has repeatedly and clearly made negative comments about NATO. First of all, because the Europeans resisted the US takeover of Greenland; then because they did not take part in the Iran war. Trump called the alliance a worthless “paper tiger.”
Military intelligence recognizes increased danger
Michael Claesson also sees how Putin could justify the occupation of one or more small Baltic Sea islands: with the shadow fleet and tougher action, particularly by Sweden, against tankers carrying Russian oil. Several of these ships have recently been stopped and searched, to which Russia reacted sharply.
Increased readiness: A Swedish speedboat on patrol.Image: www.imago-images.de
Moscow complained that the approach bordered on piracy and began guarding the ships with security personnel and also escorting them militarily. “Russia could say it needs a few of these rocks in the Baltic Sea so that the Shadow Fleet can operate safely,” said Claesson.
The army chief is not the only one who thinks this way. Denmark’s military intelligence said at the end of 2025 that the Baltic Sea region was the greatest risk that “Russia will use military force against NATO.” Swedish intelligence warned of a limited armed attack near Sweden in the coming years.
For Claesson it is clear: NATO must visibly increase its presence in the Baltic Sea and in the north in general in order not to tempt Putin to carry out such tests in the first place. “We have to be on guard and deter Russia from this kind of adventure.” (aargauerzeitung.ch)