Secretary of State Marco Rubio (front) is currently leaving Vice President JD Vance Image: keystone
Marco Rubio or JD Vance: Who will be Trump’s successor? Both are positioning themselves, but one currently seems to be in the lead.
May 15, 2026, 05:10May 15, 2026, 05:10
Thomas Wanhoff / t-online
In the USA, the race to succeed US President Trump is already in full swing – and two people in particular are currently standing out. JD Vance, Vice President and previously considered the top candidate, and Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and increasingly in the spotlight.
Rubio actually wanted to become president almost ten years ago, then the then senator from Florida gave up in the race against Donald Trump – as one of the last Republicans. This could now pay off: The US President is increasingly praising Rubio, while JD Vance leads a shadowy existence.
The Secretary of State has been given two positions by his boss that only his legendary predecessor, Henry Kissinger, had at the same time: Head of the State Department and National Security Advisor. He rarely leaves Trump’s side, was at the summit in Beijing, was sitting in the Situation Room when Trump had Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro arrested and the attacks on Iran began.
Vance just becomes “fraud czar”
However, no sign of JD Vance. He is considered less war-friendly than the president, which is also well received by many Republicans. The Iran war is particularly criticized by the MAGA movement – too expensive, no benefit for the USA.
While Rubio is allowed to appear on the international stage, Trump only made his deputy a “fraud czar”. Vance and his team are supposed to look for cases of fraud in the allegedly stolen presidential election in 2020, primarily in US states governed by Democrats, Trump said.
When he was recently asked whether he and Rubio would fight, Vance tried to answer with a joke. Trump is trying to use his experience on the TV show “The Apprentice” to find the best successor, reports the New York Post.
Vance: Trump is joking about us
“I just don’t think it’s appropriate for the President of the United States to hold a televised competition to see who should be his successor as apprentice. I just think you wouldn’t expect something like that from the president at all,” Vance said sarcastically at a press conference discussing measures to combat welfare fraud.
“I think it’s normal that he’s joking with us a little and toying with the idea, but I can assure you that the president is as committed as any of us to making sure that we do the best job we can for the American people right now,” Vance added. He himself has a good relationship with Rubio, but does not see it as respectful to publicly discuss his successor a year and a half before Trump leaves office.
In early May, Rubio was allowed to speak to journalists about the progress of the Iran War, met Pope Leo XIV and spoke in English and Spanish. The Vice President, on the other hand, was sent to the country on a fundraising tour. In Oklahoma, he was a keynote speaker at an event that was expected to raise $2 million for Republicans, according to a person familiar with the matter. He also met with the families of two soldiers who died in the Middle East. Important photo opportunities, but far away from world political events.
“Little Mario” has a quieter tone
Trump himself commented on the two possible candidates. «Who likes JD Vance? Who likes Marco Rubio?” he shouted at a meeting with law enforcement officials in the White House Rose Garden, waiting for applause for each name. He said he believes they both make a good team.
“But that doesn’t mean they always have my support.”
When JD Vance attacked the Ukrainian president in front of cameras at a meeting in the White House in February 2026, Rubio, who was also present, looked as if he was in a state of shock. But “little Mario,” as Trump once called him, has outgrown the role of a simple minister.
He apparently formulates large parts of US foreign policy and adopts a quieter tone. While JD Vance openly criticized NATO and Europe at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, Rubio called the USA a “child of Europe” at the same venue a year later.
Surveys do not yet show a clear picture
Trump himself, reports the British Telegraph, joked at a meeting of his Peace Council on February 19 that his vice president was “sometimes a little too tough,” which is why “we have to slow him down a little.” In contrast, “Marco does it with kid gloves – but it’s deadly.”
Vance seems to have the trust within the Republicans. “If JD Vance runs, he will be the favorite,” said a former Rubio aide, according to the Telegraph. “I think the president likes to stir up unrest, but it’s too early to draw any conclusions.” Another was more explicit.
“JD will be the Republican candidate and Marco will support him.”
There is no clear picture emerging in polls either: An AtlasIntel poll published on Tuesday showed Rubio with a lead of 15 percentage points over Vance in the race for the nomination. A Financial Times poll conducted earlier this month, however, showed the vice president leading by 25 percentage points. On the Polymarket betting platform on Thursday evening, Vance was 36 percent ahead of Rubio, whose chances of succeeding Trump were given as 25 percent.
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