Rachida Dati, top candidate of the Conservatives.Image: keystone
In the local elections in France, right-wingers and citizens want to conquer several large cities. How good are your chances? Answers to the five most important questions.
Mar 12, 2026, 4:42 p.mMar 12, 2026, 4:42 p.m
Why is the right on the rise in France?
Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) is moving into town halls in several major cities, especially on the Mediterranean coast. So in Marseille, Toulon and – thanks to the dissident conservative Eric Ciotti – in Nice. But the right-wingers are also considered favorites in many medium-sized cities.
With the emotive word “kébabisation” – derived from the Turkish sandwich kebab – they mobilize against the sociological change in the inner cities. The RN is even spreading in rural and agricultural areas such as the Cantal (Massif Central). According to surveys, the main reasons are fear of migration and rampant insecurity caused by drug gangs and cartels.
Is the capital Paris a special case?
In Paris, the conservative Republicans in particular are hoping for their top candidate, Rachida Dati. The previous culture minister wants to recapture Paris, which has been ruled by the left and green since 2001, for the bourgeoisie. She comes from a North African immigrant family and speaks a vernacular language; At the same time, she is also portraying herself in the wealthy districts as an opponent of the “red” mayor Anne Hidalgo, who is not running for re-election after twelve years.
However, Dati has an annoying corruption affair on his hands. In surveys, with 28 percent, she is just behind the rather colorless socialist Emmanuel Grégoire (32 percent), who broke away from Hidalgo in the dispute. The moderate cyclist leads a broad red-green alliance and wants to continue Hidalgo’s determined policy of greening and traffic calming in the capital. However, it will not be Dati or Grégoire themselves that will decide the election, but rather any voting recommendations from eliminated right-wing and left-wing radical candidates for the second round of voting.
Why is red-green threatened in many cities?
The French left is going into the election divided: the “New Popular Front” of 2024 collapsed due to the aggressive behavior of the left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Without his “indomitable” the socialists, communists and greens still have hopes for cities like Paris, Marseille or Strasbourg. They are also likely to preserve red strongholds such as Lille or Nantes.
However, the Greens themselves are threatened with electoral defeat: they are likely to lose many cities that they won in 2020 as a result of the pandemic, such as Lyon, Grenoble, Strasbourg and Bordeaux. This is an indication that climate change is currently having little impact in France. There is more to talk about internal and external security on the left of the Rhine. Left-wing candidates also want to equip community police officers with firearms.
How is the Macron camp doing?
Bad. Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party has never managed to establish local roots since his election to the Elysée in 2017. The unpopular, politically isolated president is no longer a driving force himself. Macronists only have a chance of being elected in a few large cities such as Lyon, Toulouse or Bordeaux – and even there only thanks to the experience of allied parties such as the Republicans or the Center Democrats.
The local elections should first reveal how much Macron has failed in his attempt to build a “third camp” in his country. The right-left divide is back in France. An example: Macron’s former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who was considered a promising presidential candidate, even has to worry about his re-election as mayor in Le Havre.
Does the ballot allow conclusions to be drawn about the 2027 presidential election?
The local elections this and the following Sunday are the last test of sentiment before the presidential elections in just over a year. The favorite Marine Le Pen or her replacement Jordan Bardella now want to make gains as widely as possible. In large cities, but also in the north-west of France, the Lepenists remain locally weak.
It is difficult to draw direct conclusions about the presidential election. In some places – for example in Marseille – it will at least become clear whether the “firewall” will hold against the extreme right, that is, whether the conservative electorate will vote for the left or for Le Pen in the runoff election. And that will be decisive in the “royal election” to the Elysée. (aargauerzeitung.ch)