Goldman Sachs research shared with POLITICO estimates that commercial jet fuel stocks in Europe, excluding government reserves, could fall to below 23 days of supply by the end of May or early June. That is a critical threshold flagged earlier by the International Energy Agency, beyond which airports may begin to face shortages.
This would occur under the base scenario, which anticipates that the situation in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz will normalize by June.
“Under an adverse scenario (normalization delayed to July), stocks could be depleted entirely by year-end,” the research said.
Lufthansa reported overall positive results despite higher fuel costs, with its first quarter revenues up 8 percent to €8.7 billion compared with the same period a year ago.
However, the group said that jet fuel prices, which have doubled since the start of the war in the Middle East, are expected to lead to additional costs of €1.7 billion in 2026.
In April, Lufthansa cut 20,000 flights to eliminate routes that had become unprofitable due to higher fuel costs. The company also retired the entire 27-aircraft fleet of its CityLine subsidiary ahead of schedule.
Lufthansa has hedged over three-quarters of its fuel, limiting its exposure to higher prices for this year.