Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far stuck to his maximum demands.Image: keystone
Leaked internal documents from Russia’s presidential administration show what a possible end to the war would look like and, above all, how this could be sold as a victory.
May 19, 2026, 4:35 p.mMay 19, 2026, 4:35 p.m
The front line hardly moves. The sanctions imposed by the West are affecting the economy. Ukrainian drone strikes bring war to Russian cities. The war, in which thousands of young Russians have already died, is putting Putin under increasing pressure. “We have to know when it’s over,” says a presentation by the presidential administration, which was published by the investigative medium Dossier Center was leaked.
The political bloc of the Russian power elite is concerned about developments on the front and in the economy, writes “Dossier Center”. Since February 2026, work has been underway to outline a possible end to the war. The scenario considered most plausible assumes an agreement with the USA, Ukraine and a little propaganda.
What’s inside?
In this scenario, according to “Dossier Center,” the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts will be ceded to Russia and the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts will be divided along the front line. In return, Russian forces would withdraw from Sumy and Kharkiv. The EU sanctions would remain in place, while those of the USA would be lifted. The Ukrainian government in Kyiv would also remain in power.
In order to be able to sell this end of the war as a victory to the Russian population despite failure to meet defined war goals, a communication strategy is needed. The war should be sold as a success and goals should be retroactively revised downwards. Potentially critical voices, such as the nationalist military bloggers, are to be brought into line with the threat of prison sentences.
Now what does that mean?
SRF suspects that the report was prepared without Putin’s knowledge. The authors are parts of the elite who believe an end to the war is possible and desirable. They were also the ones who neither expected nor wanted war. The leaked report can be seen as an attempt to persuade Putin to change course.
“Dossier Center” emphasizes that the presentation has no influence on the ongoing negotiations. Rather, this document shows the ongoing power struggle between the political bloc, in the form of the presidential administration, and the Russian secret service FSB.
The US analysis institute takes a somewhat different view Institute for the Study of War (ISW) the document. Accordingly, this could have been deliberately leaked in order to signal Russian willingness to negotiate territories. The presidential administration is incorrectly presenting this scenario as a major concession. According to the “ISW”, it is unlikely that the Russian army will take over the entire Donetsk Oblast militarily in the short to medium term.
It remains unclear whether the “most likely scenario” of the Russian presidential administration is just a negotiating tactic, remains a power struggle or becomes a reality.