If Labour does as badly as predicted — and the SNP wins power again, despite a long-running finances investigation and two changes of first minister since 2023 — there will be huge questions for Starmer about squandering the 2024 success.
Sarwar has already called for Starmer to resign. He made the plea in February, hoping a change of PM in Westminster would limit the damage north of the border. Watch to see if anyone else comes out swinging as results filter in through Friday and Saturday.
3) Feeling the Farage factor
Farage has embarked on an extensive tour of England, where city, council and district councils are up for grabs.
While much of his success last year came from snatching Tory councils, this time the Reform UK leader wants to park his teal tanks in Labour’s backyard — and show MPs he’s coming for their seats by 2029.
The party is aiming for a strong performance across the Midlands and northern England in areas including Barnsley, Gateshead and Sunderland. The latter city includes Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s constituency, one of many Cabinet ministers Reform hopes to eject in 2029.
“The problem for Labour is … that it’s not all in their own hands,” says Curtice. “Labour badly, badly need the Tories to recover at Reform’s expense,” he adds. A significant part of Farage’s success comes from former Tory voters. A Conservative recovery would, Curtice says, “be the best news” the PM has had for quite a while.