Japan’s population is shrinking and shrinking.Image: keystone
Japan has reached a historic demographic low: for the first time in 42 years, fewer than 120 million Japanese live in the country. The birth rate is at a record low – the current glimmer of hope is a dating app.
July 30, 2026, 2:43 p.mJuly 30, 2026, 2:46 p.m
For the first time in 42 years, Japan’s population falls below the historic mark of 120 million citizens. According to the Ministry of the Interior, the statistics on January 1st still counted 119.74 million Japanese people – a decrease of 0.76 percent compared to the previous year. This is the 17th year in a row that the number has fallen since it peaked in 2009.
The situation is different for foreigners in Japan: their number has reached its highest level since the survey began in 2013. Overall, Japan still has a population of 123.8 million. According to the World Bank, with a median age of 49.9 years, the country also has the second oldest population in the world – only Monaco is ahead of it.
Too few weddings
The central problem remains the birth rate: it fell again in 2025, by 0.01 points to 1.14 children per woman – the tenth decline in a row. Last year, a good 670,000 babies were born to Japanese citizens, almost 15,000 fewer than in the previous year and fewer than ever since records began in 1899. The number of deaths was 1.6 million – more than twice as high as the number of births.
One main reason is the decline in marriages: Because the vast majority of children in Japan are born within a marriage, the trend towards fewer weddings has a direct impact on birth rates. While around 800,000 marriages were concluded per year at the turn of the millennium, today there are only around 500,000. At the same time, the proportion of people who never marry by the age of 50 has risen sharply: from 3 to 28 percent for men between 1980 and 2020, and from 4 to 18 percent for women in the same period.
Another reason is entrenched gender roles: women perceive the unequally distributed burden of household and childcare as a central problem much more often than men. Former Interior Minister Hiroya Masuda explained that the “crushing pressure of old norms” in the countryside was pushing women to move to the capital.
The fact that the historic 120 million mark has been broken is more than just a numbers game: the shrinking, aging population is putting the world’s fourth-largest economy under pressure. A lack of workers, rising social security costs and falling tax revenues are putting a strain on the state budget. Japan’s government has been trying to stop the trend for years – so far without resounding success.
Hope through a dating app
A ray of hope comes from the administration: 265 couples have already married using the AI dating app “Tokyo Enmusubi” launched by the city of Tokyo. It went online in 2024 after a survey showed that around 70 percent of singles who wanted to get married were not actively looking. Only those who could prove their single status and pass an online interview could register.
By the end of June, the app had over 17,000 members – selected from 36,000 applications. A user with the pseudonym “Turtle” tried it “as a last chance” shortly before her 40th birthday. A few months later, thanks to AI help, she married her current partner.
The “Tokyo Enmusubi” app matches partners who want to get married using artificial intelligence.image: Tokyo Enmusubi
2026 is a Hinoeuma year
But be careful: According to the traditional Japanese calendar, 2026 is a so-called Hinoeuma year – a “fire horse year” in the 60-year Chinese zodiac cycle, which only returns every six decades. The superstition behind it goes back to the Edo period (1603 to 1868): women who were born in a Hinoeuma year were particularly stubborn and would bring bad luck to their husbands or even shorten his life.
For fear of this, many couples consciously avoid having children this year – especially daughters. In the last Hinoeuma year, 1966, the number of births fell by around a quarter. If the effect is even partially repeated, the birth rate could fall even lower.