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analysis
With gerrymandering, Republicans could lose more than they win in the midterm elections.
May 12, 2026, 1:40 p.mMay 12, 2026, 1:40 p.m
How low can Donald Trump sink in the polls? His popularity ratings are now lower than those of Richard Nixon before Watergate. That doesn’t bode well for the president: everything points to a landslide victory for the Democrats in the midterm elections. Not only the House of Representatives, but also the Senate could fall into their hands again.
Trump does not have to fear for his own re-election, but he is becoming a lame duck, which means he can only govern with presidential decrees and, above all, he has to fear that the Democrats will start investigations that will scrutinize his corrupt dealings and possibly frame him for a third impeachment procedure.
Started a gerrymandering war: Donald Trump.Image: keystone
Until recently, there was little to suggest that Trump and the Republicans could have achieved political success to prevent the impending defeat. That’s why they’re now trying dirty tricks, more specifically so-called gerrymandering. This term refers to the process of dividing the electoral districts in a state in such a way that the victory of a particular candidate is almost certain.
In other words: Gerrymandering no longer allows citizens to choose their politicians, but rather politicians choose their voters.
Actually, gerrymandering is only common after a census. This is carried out every ten years and has the result that the number of representatives that each state is entitled to is determined. The individual states can then determine the division of the districts. The next census will not take place until 2030.
But Trump thinks little of tradition and laws. That’s why he ordered Texas to use gerrymandering to ensure that Republicans win five more seats in the upcoming midterm elections. In doing so, he triggered a veritable gerrymandering war.
First, California reacted and decided with a referendum to redraw its electoral districts so that the Democrats also gained five seats. When the state of Virginia did the same, Trump and the Republicans initially seemed to have scored their own goal.
As retaliated: Gavin Newsom, Governor of California.Image: keystone
Now everything looks completely different again. And this for two reasons: On the one hand, the Supreme Court of the state of Virginia declared the popular vote invalid on formal grounds and with it the Democrats’ prospect of secure seat gains. On the other hand, the national Supreme Court made an even more far-reaching ruling: it struck down a law that ensured that blacks were given adequate representation in the southern states.
It is part of the Voting Rights Act, the law passed in 1965 that corrected the suppression of black votes, especially in the southern states. With the ruling by the conservative Supreme Court, these states are now again able to divide their electoral districts in such a way that the black votes are lost in the white majority.
The southern states immediately made use of this Supreme Court ruling. In Louisiana, the Republican governor even stopped the primaries that were already underway. Meanwhile, in Tennessee, the constituency of Memphis, a majority-black city, has been so fragmented that their votes no longer matter in the majority-white area. Something similar is planned in Alabama and Arkansas. In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis pushed a similar law through the Republican-dominated Senate within hours.
Trump’s coalition is falling apart
So will Teflon Trump once again be able to use dirty tricks to achieve his goal? Rather not. He won the 2024 elections because he managed – and because the Democrats behaved stupidly – to forge a coalition in which not only MAGA fans were represented, but an above-average number of blacks, Hispanics and young people.
There are a number of reasons why this coalition is falling apart. And with gerrymandering, Trump drives the Democrats mad, but also drives their voters to the ballot box. Many independents will also take part in the midterm elections this time. They are frustrated because Trump is blatantly violating his campaign promises and the economy is not getting up to speed. The MAGA base, on the other hand, is not very motivated, after all, their idol is not on the ballot.
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Trump wants to use gerrymandering to ensure that the Republicans remain in power, even if a majority votes for the Democrats. He could be shooting himself in the foot because even Republican constituencies that he thought were safe are no longer safe. A certain Viktor Orban sends greetings from Hungary.