Once again, Donald Trump failed to carry out a threat. Image: keystone
analysis
Donald Trump once again gave an ultimatum – and then backed down: the ceasefire with Iran remains in force. The US President is gradually running out of time.
April 22, 2026, 7:39 p.mApril 22, 2026, 7:40 p.m
Once again, Donald Trump has made a U-turn. A few hours before the end of the ceasefire with Iran, the US President announced it will be extended. Until there is a unified proposal from Iran and the talks are concluded, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Screenshot: TruthSocial
Shortly before, it had sounded completely different: “I assume that we will bomb because this is the better starting position. The military is in the starting blocks», Trump told CNBC said on Tuesday morning. And a few days earlier, he had warned that there would be “no more Mr. Nice Guy” if the Iranian leadership did not back down.
Deferral without compensation
For the time being, American fighter jets will not be carrying out any air strikes on Iran. That in itself is good news. Nevertheless, Trump’s about-face is irritating – it is part of a policy that seems planless and helpless. The postponement was unilateral and, what’s more, without any apparent reciprocation from Tehran. On the contrary, the Iranian regime announced shortly before Trump’s statement that no Iranian representatives would come to Pakistan for negotiations for the time being because the USA had not backed down from “excessive demands” in the past few days. Taking part in the talks in Islambad under these circumstances would be “a complete waste of time”.
No wonder that critics immediately mocked the president with the catchphrase TACO (“Trump always chickens out”) CNN reported. On his Truth Social platform, Trump justified himself by saying that the postponement of the attacks was at the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif of Pakistan. Iran should be given the opportunity to develop a proposal for the negotiations. In addition, the Iranian government is “seriously divided”. According to CNN, senior US officials believe that Iran has not responded to the US proposals because its leadership has not yet agreed on a common position.
The momentum is in Tehran
The generally well-informed news portal Axios writes that Trump’s negotiators are still convinced that a “deal” to end the war can be reached. But the quarreling factions of the Iranian regime must first come to an agreement. “Trump is prepared to grant another three to five day ceasefire to allow the Iranians to get their affairs in order. “It won’t be indefinite,” an insider told Axios.
However, since Trump has not given a clear deadline and instead wants to extend the ceasefire until the Iranian leadership has agreed on a proposal, the momentum is now in Tehran. This was criticized by Seth Moulton, Democratic representative from Massachusetts: He told CNNnot the USA, but Iran is in control of the situation. The Iranians obviously understand what makes Trump tick much better than Trump understands the Iranians. Moulton assumes that Trump wants to buy himself time. The president had no idea what to do next; He doesn’t know how he’s going to get out of there. There is no plan and there never was a plan.
“Iran is in control of the situation”: Representative Seth Moulton criticizes Trump. Image: AP/AP
Trump’s tactics have failed
Trump’s recent backtracking shows at least one thing clearly: his tactic of getting Tehran to give in through massive military threats has failed, and has already failed several times. There is probably hardly anyone in the ranks of the surviving representatives of the Iranian regime who still takes the US President’s threats of escalation seriously. Mahdi Mohammadi, an advisor to the Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf, even described the USA on X as an “inferior side”:
Trump’s ceasefire extension “means nothing,” says Mahdi Mohammadi, adviser to Iran’s parliament speaker. pic.twitter.com/QG7rOhT476
— برهان الدین | Burhan uddin (@burhan_uddin_0) April 21, 2026
“An extension of the ceasefire by Trump is meaningless. The losing side cannot dictate terms. Continuing the blockade is no different from bombing and must be met with a military response. Furthermore, any extension of the ceasefire by Trump is undoubtedly a means of buying time for a surprise attack. Now it is time for Iran to take the initiative.”
Time tends to work for Tehran
The regime in Tehran sees the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Mohammadi mentions in his post, as a violation of the ceasefire, which represents a key obstacle to further negotiations. Trump is continuing the blockade in order to increase the pressure on the regime, which will lose revenue from oil exports. In fact, it will become increasingly difficult for the Iranian leadership to pay salaries for the military and police, as Trump euphorically claims on Truth Social. But the regime, which was extremely unscrupulous in the bloody suppression of the protests in January, is unlikely to take the plight of the population into account.
Screenshot: Truth Social
In contrast, Trump is under increasing domestic political pressure – including from his own supporters. The prospect of another endless war in faraway places has already alienated some of the MAGA movement from Trump. In addition, the president is cutting into his own flesh by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The rise in oil prices is sending shockwaves through the global economy and is also being felt at American gas pumps – not least where the MAGA movement dominates. Tehran, however, doesn’t care about the global economic problems.
Rising gasoline prices and inflation are blamed on Trump.Image: keystone
Trump must end this war and do so without losing face. Since he has not yet been able to bomb the regime in Tehran into surrender, he is dependent on finding a negotiated solution. While Trump is increasingly under pressure to act – but without any sensible options for the next move – the Iranian regime can play for time.
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Video: Watson