Donald Trump is running out of time. Image: keystone
analysis
Despite the devastating American-Israeli airstrikes on its military facilities and the elimination of key leaders, the Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself in a position of strength.
April 23, 2026, 8:53 p.mApril 23, 2026, 8:53 p.m
American and Israeli fighter jets have carried out thousands of attacks on targets in Iran since February 28, and hundreds of cruise missiles have been fired. Already at the beginning of the war, the long-standing supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, died in the rubble of his residence, and other key figures in the regime died in air strikes. Air strikes severely affected Iran’s military facilities and all of the Iranian Navy’s capital ships were sunk. Things were not looking good for the already weakened Iranian regime.
But almost eight weeks after the start of the war and after two weeks of a fragile ceasefire, the regime in Tehran still exists. What’s more: it brims with self-confidence and describes the attackers as “losers”. How strong the Iranian leadership feels is shown by its reaction to US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would extend the ceasefire with Iran after he had previously threatened new attacks: The Tasnim news agency, mouthpiece of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, announced shortly afterwards that Iran had not asked for an extension.
Conversations “a complete waste of time”
This extension also came without any consideration from the Iranian regime. On the contrary – the talks in Pakistan planned for Tuesday before the end of the ceasefire did not take place because Iran turned down the USA. Vice President JD Vance, who was already on the plane, had to turn back. Tehran said talks were a “pure waste of time” because the US had not backed down from its “excessive demands”.
In his announcement of the extension, Trump did not give an exact deadline – he only said it would take until the Iranian leadership had agreed on a proposal. The fact that the US President is extending the ceasefire just so that the Iranians can even agree to take part in talks is being celebrated as a victory in Tehran. Tasnim commented: “It means that Trump has lost the war.”
Trump’s spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt admitted to journalists that Trump had not set a deadline for Tehran to submit a proposal. But she emphasized that it was Trump who set the schedule. Iran, of course, sees it differently: “The losing side cannot dictate the conditions,” wrote Mahdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, on X.
Press spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. Image: keystone
Blockade against blockade
The regime therefore shows strength. In any case, it does not feel bound by Trump’s ceasefire, as it sees the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as an act of war and therefore a violation of the ceasefire. Revolutionary Guard speedboats fired on several merchant ships on Wednesday and captured two of them. These attacks show that Tehran still has a firm grip on the strait and could thereby further exacerbate the burden on the global economy, wrote the New York Times.
Richard Fontaine of the think tank Center for a New American Security (CNAS), wrote on X: “The fight has moved from the air and land to the sea.” It’s about “blockade against blockade. An economic war focused on the Strait of Hormuz.” The blockade of Iranian ports and the deprivation of oil revenues for the Revolutionary Guard are more effective for the USA than Trump’s threats to bomb power plants and bridges.
The problem is that Iran is putting a strain on the global economy by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. “Tehran is counting on being able to withstand the consequences of a blockade longer than the rest of the world,” wrote Fontaine. Iran’s control over the strait is “more useful for Tehran than its nuclear program.” The British historian Niall Ferguson also points out that Tehran has effective leverage with its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike atomic bombs, this can not only be threatened, but also used effectively. He also assumes that Iran is not completely disarmed despite the losses at sea and in the air.
A huge propaganda poster in Tehran shows a net in the shape of the Strait of Hormuz in which US military equipment is trapped. Image: keystone
Under time pressure
The question now is who is running out of time faster – the regime in Tehran, which is losing its oil revenues due to the US blockade, or Donald Trump, who is coming under increasing domestic political pressure due to the unpopular Iran war. Iran is losing an estimated $400 million a day due to the blockade, which is indeed a growing problem for the regime. Since the start of the war, up to five million Iranians are said to have lost their jobs, meaning that around 12 to 15 million Iranians are currently without an income. It is also possible that China – the main buyer of Iranian oil – is putting pressure on Tehran behind the scenes because its oil reserves are gradually running out.
Trump, on the other hand, is under severe time pressure because the war is darkening his Republican Party’s prospects in the midterms in November. In addition, an important deadline expires on May 1st: According to the War Powers Resolution from 1973, deployments of armed US troops without the prior approval of Congress may last a maximum of 60 days. According to the New York Times, several Republicans have already announced that they will not support an extension beyond 60 days. (dhr)
With material from the SDA news agency.
Trump on destruction in Iran
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