Photo. U.S. Army Europe/Flickr/Public domain
The United States is increasingly choosing the Allies with whom it wants to discuss the future of NATO and turn political declarations into concrete military decisions. The next meeting of this narrow format is expected to take place in Poland. France, the United Kingdom and the Baltic States have not been invited, while Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland and Sweden remain at the centre of the process. This is becoming much more than another informal consultation.
The format began in June in Bergen, where Elbridge Colby brought together the United States and six European Allies: Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Finland and Sweden. Colby later explained the logic quite clearly. Washington wanted countries moving rapidly towards the new NATO spending commitments, possessing sufficient industrial scale and, most importantly, willing to move from declarations to actual military projects. The idea is simple: smaller groups can sometimes act faster than a 32-member Alliance.
This is why the absence of France, the United Kingdom and the Baltic States is so interesting. France and Britain remain two of Europe’s most important military powers; both possess nuclear weapons and major defence industries, while the Baltic States are among the most committed Allies on the eastern flank. The Pentagon has not publicly explained every exclusion. What is visible, however, is that the United States is no longer treating every NATO consultation as something that must begin with all 32 members around the same table.
For Poland, this is the more important story. Warsaw is not simply hosting a meeting because of geography. Poland has repeatedly been included in this narrow group at the same time as Washington is discussing „NATO 3.0”, reviewing its force posture in Europe and talking with Warsaw about the future of the American military presence in Poland. Poland is therefore increasingly becoming one of the countries with which the US wants to discuss how the European pillar of NATO should actually work.
„NATO 3.0” is not supposed to mean an American withdrawal from Europe. The concept is based on a stronger European contribution to conventional defence, while the United States remains engaged and continues to provide capabilities Europe cannot yet replace, including the nuclear umbrella. At the same time, greater European capabilities may eventually allow Washington to adjust part of its military footprint in Europe.
This makes the timing particularly important. The Pentagon is simultaneously reviewing the future deployment of US forces in Europe. The countries sitting at the table with Washington are therefore discussing NATO’s future precisely when decisions about burden-sharing, military capabilities and the American presence are being reconsidered.
For Poland, the message is quite simple, and this is the place where Warsaw needs to be. It matters less who was left outside this particular meeting than the fact that Poland is again inside a very narrow group speaking directly with Washington about NATO’s future. If the United States increasingly wants to work through smaller coalitions of Allies that spend more, have industrial capacity and are ready to act, Warsaw should make sure it remains one of the first capitals called. This is not about creating another NATO. It is about ensuring that when the most important decisions are prepared, Poland is already at the table and should push for the inclusion of the Baltic States and other crucial Allies.