Ukrainian soldiers fire at Russian positions with the Type 2S7 self-propelled howitzer.Image: keystone
For months, Putin’s troops advanced slowly despite heavy losses. Now experts see further signs of a trend reversal on the front.
June 2, 2026, 4:49 p.mJune 2, 2026, 4:49 p.m
For the first time since the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, Russia did not gain any net terrain last month. On the contrary: the Ukrainian armed forces were able to recapture more territory in May than the Russian army occupied at the same time. This was reported by the independent Ukrainian military analysis group Deep State on Telegram.
On their publicly accessible map Deep State recorded Russian terrain gains of 14 square kilometers for May. However, the actual outcome is different because Ukrainian advances are only published with a delay for security reasons. Taking this data into account, the Russian territorial balance was negative for the first time in years, writes Deep State, without quantifying it.
In contrast, the Washington Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides precise figures: if you only look at the areas previously controlled by Russia, Russian forces have said own ISW calculations Between December 2025 and May 2026, over 280 square kilometers were lost, compared to terrain gains of around 40 square kilometers.
“Russia normally advances faster between spring and autumn. This time we don’t see any acceleration.”
Military analyst Rob Lee
The development is also remarkable because Russia has recently significantly intensified its attacks. According to Deep State, the number of storm attacks increased by 37.5 percent in May. One focus of this is the fortress city of Konstantinivka, which Russia has been attacking with all its might for months. “Unfortunately, the situation in Konstantinivka remains problematic and the future prospects for the city are anything but rosy,” Deep State admits.
Nevertheless, the Russian troops overall did not manage to increase the pace of their advance. “Russia normally advances faster between spring and autumn. “We don’t see any acceleration this time,” said military analyst Rob Lee to the online portal “Kyiv Independent”.
Other observers also see signs that Moscow’s spring offensive is losing momentum. Australian military expert and Major General Mick Ryan said Russia had so far achieved “no real breakthrough” and had conquered significantly less terrain than in comparable periods in recent years.
Ukrainian drone offensive against supply lines
The development comes at a time when Ukraine is expanding its counterattacks and increasingly targeting Russian supply lines. In a campaign against the logistics of the invading army, Ukrainian drone units say they are destroying numerous trucks and supply hubs deep behind the front.
Ukrainian soldiers fly a drone towards Russian positions.Image: keystone
However, the actual situation remains difficult to assess. The front line is constantly changing in the age of drones. Contested gray areas repeatedly arise between the positions of both sides, and control changes frequently. Accordingly, the assessments of military officials and independent observers sometimes differ considerably.
Nevertheless, recent developments suggest that Ukraine may have managed to slow the Russian advance, at least for the time being. However, whether this will actually result in a strategic turnaround will only become apparent in the coming months. Traditionally, the fighting reaches its climax in autumn. Until then it will be clear whether Kyiv can regain the initiative permanently. (aargauerzeitung.ch)