According to information from Axios, the US government wants to relocate dozens more tanker aircraft to Israel.Image: Keystone
The US is stepping up its attacks in southern Iran. One expert sees this as possible preparations for a ground offensive.
Jul 19, 2026, 3:46 amJul 19, 2026, 3:47 am
Mauritius Kloft / t-online
According to Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi, the increasing US attacks in the south of Iran could indicate preparations for a possible ground operation. Washington is specifically attacking transport routes, military formations and positions along the coast, wrote the visiting scientist from the Science and Politics Foundation on Platform X. At the same time, the US news portal reports “Axios”that President Donald Trump is considering a massive expansion of the war.
A Few Words on #Iran‘s “Strategy”
Iran’s military response to the US campaign over the past two days has escalated both in intensity and in the range of targets. Even so, its approach continues to exhibit two defining characteristics. First, it remains essentially reactive.…
— Hamidreza Azizi (@HamidRezaAz) July 18, 2026
According to information from Axios, the US government wants to relocate dozens more tanker aircraft to Israel. Trump had several new military plans presented to him in the Situation Room, the portal reported, citing three American and Israeli government representatives. A decision has not yet been made, but could be made in the coming days.
At issue are attacks on Iranian power plants and other parts of the infrastructure, renewed attacks on nuclear facilities and an attack on a suspected underground nuclear facility on the so-called “Pickaxe Mountain”. The additional tankers could increase the range and operational duration of American fighter aircraft and thus support a more extensive air offensive.
Iran suspends framework agreement
At the same time, hope for a diplomatic solution is dwindling. The Iranian government considers the framework agreement concluded with the USA in mid-June to be suspended for the time being. According to the Iranian Fars news agency, Deputy Foreign Minister Kasem Gharibabadi said his country was currently “busy with the country’s defense.”
Gharibabadi accused Washington of violating obligations under the so-called Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with its attacks. That’s why Tehran no longer feels bound to the agreement. According to Iran, however, it has not formally withdrawn from the agreement.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kasem Gharibabadi (l.) during an interview on state television.Image: Reuters
In mid-June, the USA and Iran agreed in principle to negotiate a permanent agreement within 60 days. One of the key points was the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire had been in effect since the beginning of April before the conflict escalated again at the beginning of July.
Azizi recognizes patterns for ground operations
Expert Azizi goes one step further in his analysis. The pattern of recent attacks could be part of a gradual strategy to “prepare the ground for a possible deployment of ground troops,” he wrote. The aim of such an operation could be to bring Iran’s southern coastal strip under control and thereby deprive Tehran of access to the Strait of Hormuz.
The expert refers to the selection of goals. US forces have attacked bridges and railway connections in the south of the country in recent days. There are also reports of attacks on airports and tank trucks in Bandar Abbas. Such attacks could be aimed at hindering the supply and movement of Iranian troops.
According to Axios, the US military bombed at least seven bridges around Bandar Abbas alone. The port city is considered an important logistical center for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The connections transport ammunition, materials and reinforcements to units along the Strait of Hormuz.
From Azizi’s point of view, attacks on larger Iranian army units also speak for a more comprehensive strategy. The 88th Armored Division of the regular army was attacked in the southeastern province of Sistan and Balochistan. In southwestern Khuzestan, positions of the 92nd Panzer Division were targeted.
Some observers interpreted these attacks as an attempt to weaken Iranian forces along key southern axes, Azizi explained. This could reduce the risks of a later deployment of American ground troops.
Control of the coast as a possible goal
At the same time, the USA is continuing its attacks on missile, drone and radar installations as well as facilities of the Revolutionary Guard Navy along the Persian Gulf. Taken together, the developments increasingly point to a possible ground operation in southern Iran, Azizi wrote.
The US campaign could therefore go beyond the previous goal of weakening Iran’s ability to attack merchant ships. Washington may have concluded that only control of Iran’s coastal strip could permanently eliminate the threat to the Strait of Hormuz.
So far, however, there has been no publicly confirmed decision for a ground offensive. The dispatch of additional tanker aircraft also initially speaks in favor of an expansion of air raids.
Hundreds of thousands of soldiers would be needed
At the same time, Azizi warns about the dimensions of a ground operation. An occupation of the Iranian coastal strip would go far beyond previous considerations of simply taking the island of Kharg, which is important for oil exports, or individual islands in the Strait of Hormuz.
The southern coast of Iran stretches for around 1,800 kilometers. According to Azizi’s estimates, comprehensive control of this area would probably require hundreds of thousands of soldiers. Even a successful capture does not mean that the USA can hold the area in the long term.
Iran has significant strategic depth, Azizi wrote. The size of the country and the length of the coast would make permanent control even more difficult.