Leopoard tank in Munich.Image: keystone
analysis
The USA has become unpredictable, Russia remains dangerous.
April 30, 2026, 4:32 p.mApril 30, 2026, 4:50 p.m
The British Lord Ismay was the first NATO Secretary General. After its founding, he summarized the mission of the military defense alliance succinctly as follows: “It’s about keeping the Russians out, the Americans in – and the Germans small.”
Given recent geopolitical developments, this statement needs to be changed slightly, as the Russians are now more dangerous than ever and the Americans have become unreliable. That is why the Germans no longer need to be oppressed, because in order to guarantee the security of the West, Europe needs a strong German Bundeswehr again.
No more friends: Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump.Image: keystone
There are plenty of reasons for this. Donald Trump has just declared in one of his childish fits of rage that he wants to withdraw the approximately 35,000 American soldiers stationed in Germany. The reason for this was a remark by the Federal Chancellor. Friedrich Merz had publicly complained that the Americans had no strategy in the Iran war. “The situation is, as I said, poorly thought out,” said Merz. “And I don’t see any strategic outcome for the Americans at the moment.”
The Chancellor was simply saying what military experts had already said many times. Nevertheless, this was obviously too much for the US President’s fragile nerves. He once again repeated the threats he had made in his first term in office. It remains to be seen whether it will remain just verbal outbursts this time and whether TACO-Trump will once again live up to his reputation.
The threat from the Kremlin must definitely be taken seriously. At the meeting of EU heads of state in Cyprus, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk just warned that a Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank could occur “within months.” A guest commentary by Russian political scientist Alexander Gabuev in the New York Times shows that such an attack has a realistic chance of success. He had to leave his homeland because of his criticism of the attack on Ukraine.
Gabuev had been invited to take part in a fictional war game designed to test NATO’s resilience. It took place last December, before the outbreak of the Iran War. But: “This war has given the Russians new trump cards, increased the fragmentation of the West and generally worsened the situation,” said Gabuev.
Alexander Gabuev at an Asia Society Switzerland event.Image: André Hengst / Asia Society Switzerland
In the war simulation, Gabuev was part of Team Russia. He easily managed to occupy the border area between Poland and Lithuania. They then called the White House and promised to withdraw Russian soldiers immediately if Putin’s demands were met. These demands essentially consisted of those that the Russian president had already made during the invasion of Ukraine.
Because the midterm elections are approaching, the US President gave in in this fictional scenario. Gabuev describes the result as follows:
“This de facto decapitated NATO: without the help of the Americans, the allies could no longer implement their collective defense plans. They had to watch helplessly as Trump agreed to high-level talks with Putin. With a combination of military daring, diplomatic cunning and cunning, Article 5 of the NATO Treaty (which regulates military defense) was undermined and the Russian position in Europe was strengthened.
The simulation has shown that the theory that the Russian army will be weakened for decades because of its heavy-handed actions in Ukraine and that Western Europe will therefore be safe from Putin is wishful thinking. “With the invasion of Ukraine, Putin ironically put NATO in greater danger,” says Gabuev. “The Kremlin boss repeatedly emphasizes that the real war is not against Ukraine, but against NATO. He’s repeated this so many times now that he’ll probably believe it.”
More than two decades ago, American historian Robert Kagan spoke of the West being divided into Mars and Venus. He assigned the role of the god of war to the USA, while Europe was seductive but militarily weak, according to Kagan.
Historian Robert Kagan.
That has changed radically in recent years, especially when it comes to the attitude of the Germans. With a special fund worth 500 billion euros, the Bundeswehr is to be brought into shape as quickly as possible. Chancellor Merz wants to upgrade it into the “strongest conventional army in Europe”.
In concrete terms, this means: The empty ammunition depots will be filled, the number of soldiers under arms will be increased from 185,000 to 260,000, plus 200,000 in the active reserve. Technical superiority over the enemy should be achieved by 2039.
The Germans are not only spending a lot more money on armaments. The Ukraine war also led to a change in mentality. This is not only evident in the conservative CDU. The Greens in particular – once founded not only as an environmental party but also as a peace party – are now vehemently in favor of a tough course towards Russia.
Given the monstrous war crimes committed by the Nazis, one should have expected that German rearmament would trigger mistrust and even fear. That is not the case. On the contrary, even in Poland – a country that suffered particularly under Hitler – this is viewed favorably. “Today I fear German power less than German inaction,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, commenting on German rearmament plans.
Meanwhile, in France, the other former arch-enemy, people are less afraid of the Bundeswehr than of the fact that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will not spend his money on French Rafale jets but on American F-35s.
Even the British praise the new German will to defend themselves. The “Financial Times” writes in an editorial comment: “Unlike the United Kingdom and France, both of which still harbor global power fantasies, the German strategy is laser-focused on the Russian threat.”