A woman in Tehran in front of an anti-American mural: Many still doubt whether the framework agreement between Iran and the USA is really the foundation for peace.Image: keystone
analysis
The USA and Iran have agreed on an agreement. What it says is not really known yet. But one thing is clear: peace won’t return so quickly.
June 16, 2026, 3:57 p.mJune 16, 2026, 4:06 p.m
The framework agreement between the USA and Iran is said to have already been signed digitally, and a ceremony is still to take place this week on the Bürgenstock consequences. What is in the agreement has not yet been published. Outsiders remain correspondingly skeptical. Peace is also threatened by various factors. An overview.
Benjamin Netanyahu
It appears that one participant in this war had no say in the negotiations for an agreement: Benjamin Netanyahu. People in Israel are correspondingly irritated. According to Trump, part of the deal should be that the attacks in Lebanon stop. The Israeli army has been attacking the Hezbollah militia here for weeks. Iran has also said new attacks in Lebanon would violate the deal.
But Netanyahu is defiant. On Monday he announced that he was not bound by the agreement and would not withdraw troops from the region. “We have our own interests,” said Netanyahu.
Iran
The Iranian regime is also not entirely predictable. The nuclear program is a particular sticking point. According to reports, this has not yet been negotiated in detail. However, Trump has already threatened military action if an agreement is not reached. According to the portal Axios CIA Director John Ratcliffe expressed doubts that Iran would agree to concessions.
Nevertheless, Iran is also under pressure because the economy is in shambles. One depends on sanctions being relaxed and frozen funds being released. US Vice President JD Vance recently announced that Iran is allowing nuclear inspectors back into the country wool. This should be stated in the agreement. The US troops should only be withdrawn once a nuclear agreement is in place. Whether this will come about at all will be seen in the coming weeks.
Strait of Hormuz
Thanks to the deal, oil tankers will soon be plying through the Strait of Hormuz again, as Trump announced. In return for the lifting of the US blockade, Iran also wants to allow ships through again. But shipping companies are currently being cautious. The captains only want to get their tankers moving again once the deal is finalized, as the head of the Japanese company Mitsui OSK Lines, for example, said in an interview with the Financial Times explained. And that could take two weeks or even longer.
The head of the Association of German Shipowners, Martin Kröger, also commented on this Mirror reserved: “Whether the agreement announced for Friday will lead to a permanently safe and reliable passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains to be proven.” So no one trusts the whole thing yet.
While people bathe, the tankers wait for the Strait of Hormuz to open.Image: keystone
In addition, the Strait of Hormuz is said to be mined. European states are currently discussing a possible operation to clear the area. According to the New York Times However, it is not clear whether there are any sea mines at all, and if so, how many and where they are. It is therefore unclear how long an eviction could take.
And last but not least, Iran is said to have talked about fees that it wants to charge. The word “customs” is avoided, after all, Trump announced on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would be permanently duty-free. Such fees are actually only common for artificial waterways, such as the New York Times reported. The money is used to finance infrastructure and services. “Hormuz is a natural waterway and the way I see it, the only service Iran could charge for would be not to attack ships,” James Holmes of the Naval War College told the Times.
Donald Trump
The escalation in the Middle East has shown many people (again) how unpredictable Donald Trump is. He repeatedly threatened extreme attacks, backtracked, deviated from announcements or diverted attention to other things. He stated a total of 39 times that an agreement was close to being reached. The Iranian regime denied this again and again – with the exception of the 39th time.
Since hardly any details from the treaty are known and a lot still needs to be discussed, it is not yet possible to say how secure peace will be if it is actually achieved.
Trump’s actions in Iran also affect politics in the United States. And the US President can’t make a mistake. His poll numbers are already in the basement and the midterm elections are coming up in November. The Iran war in particular caused fuel prices to rise. Many other things also became more expensive. It is not yet clear how quickly they will recover if the Strait of Hormuz is actually reopened to shipping traffic.