While negotiations were taking place in Geneva, a naval exercise by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard began in the Strait of Hormuz.Image: keystone
Negotiations on two of the biggest trouble spots took place in Geneva. Not much was expected in the Ukraine war, and war could even break out between the USA and Iran.
February 18, 2026, 5:35 p.mFebruary 18, 2026, 5:35 p.m
Switzerland’s good offices have not been in great demand recently. During the negotiations over the peace plan for Gaza, she was only a spectator. In the last few days, negotiations over two of the biggest trouble spots have taken place in Geneva. Russia and Ukraine spoke to each other in the Rhone city, as did the USA and Iran.
This be “a success for Swiss diplomacy”says the NZZ. However, it plays a different role in the two cases. At the Ukraine talks, Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis and ambassador and “string-puller” Gabriel Lüchinger sat at the negotiating table. But they were only marginally involved in the Iran talks.
Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis and Ambassador Gabriel Lüchinger (r.) took part in the start of the Ukraine talks.Image: keystone
These took place in the representation of the Sultanate of Oman. Switzerland finds itself in a somewhat delicate role because it represents Washington’s interests in Tehran. She was also not directly involved in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Nevertheless, it is “surprising” for the NZZ that Russia took part in the Geneva talks.
“Unfriendly” state
Moscow put Switzerland on a list of “unfriendly states” after it joined the EU sanctions. But that doesn’t have to mean much, because there may have been a practical reason for the double talks in Geneva: Donald Trump’s “hobby diplomats” Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were able to cover both at the same time.
In fact, they were involved in the Ukraine and Iran talks. The role of the duo will always critically questioned. Witkoff is considered a friend of Russia, and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner is very close to Israel and the Gulf monarchies. They had success in the Gaza war, but that is no guarantee of a breakthrough.
Ukraine
On the first day of the trial, both sides spoke to each other for six hours. But the second round on Wednesday was finished after just two hours. The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, announced further talks in the near future. There is no breakthrough in sight to end the war that has been going on for four years.
Russia is apparently sticking to its maximum demands. Observers are not surprised. For them, both parties only took part in the negotiations so as not to upset US President Donald Trump. They depend on his favor, with Trump putting more pressure on Ukraine than on the aggressor, including in the last few days.
It remains to be seen whether this is due to his sympathies for Vladimir Putin or because the Ukrainians are the easier “victim” for the “peace” that Trump is striving for. President Volodymyr Zelensky complained that it was “not fair” that Trump only asked Ukraine and not Russia to make concessions in an interview with Axios.
He hopes that Trump’s statements “are just tactics and not a decision.” There can only be real peace if Vladimir Putin “does not win.” Zelensky expressed doubts that the Ukrainian people would agree to a deal that only provided for a withdrawal from Donbass: “Emotionally, people will never forgive this.”
Iran
Little is happening in the Ukraine war. In the conflict with Iran, however, the Trump government is “Closer to a major war than most Americans realize.”Axios also wrote, citing unnamed sources. It could last several weeks, significantly longer than the 12-day war between Iran and Israel last summer.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Tuesday.Image: keystone
After the negotiations on Tuesday, both sides were cautiously optimistic. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke of a constructive atmosphere. The path to an agreement has begun. US Vice President JD Vance said on Fox News that the talks were ongoing went well “in a way”..
However, the Iranians are not yet ready to accept the red lines set by President Trump, said Vance. For the USA, this includes not only abandoning nuclear weapons, but also the Iranian missile program and support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. Iran does not yet want to negotiate these things.
Both sides are therefore increasing their military threats. The US has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region and 50 additional fighter jets in the last 24 hours alone, according to Axios. And the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has begun a naval maneuver in the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for global oil supplies.
The Iranian revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei threatened the USA on Tuesday: “More dangerous than an aircraft carrier is the weapon that can send it to the bottom of the sea.” Donald Trump, on the other hand, is under pressure after he failed to act on his promises when the Iranian regime massacred the protesting population in January.
Since then, there has been a mood in the country that observers describe as a kind of graveyard calm. Without major concessions from Iran, at least with regard to the nuclear program, Trump can hardly back down, writes Axios. There is still a time window. U.S. officials said Tuesday they expected concrete proposals in the next two weeks.
A Trump adviser told Axios that his boss was “fed up.” There is a 90 percent probability that hostilities will occur. Such statements always have the purpose of increasing the pressure on the other side. And 70 percent of Americans reject it, according to a survey military action against Iran.
Axios, on the other hand, reminds us that Donald Trump had already given Iran a two-week deadline for negotiations in June. Three days later he gave the order for Operation “Midnight Hammer”. Israel is also preparing for war. Without a diplomatic breakthrough, this could happen soon.