A poster in the Iranian capital Tehran shows American President Donald Trump with a blue ribbon over his mouth, resembling the Strait of Hormuz.Image: keystone
The American president is traveling to Beijing this week. Three questions about the upcoming state visit to Xi Jinping and the role China could play in the Iran war.
May 11, 2026, 9:19 p.mMay 11, 2026, 9:19 p.m
The ceasefire in the Iran war is fragile. Washington and Tehran are talking about a possible peace solution, but are largely at odds. Three questions about the current situation in the Middle East.
Where are the talks about ending the Iran war?
Negotiations on a peaceful settlement of the Iran war are once again at an impasse. At the weekend, the American President rejected the government’s offer in Tehran as “absolutely unacceptable.” Donald Trump said he couldn’t do anything with it. Iran allegedly demanded financial compensation for war damage. The regime also called on Trump to recognize Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. These are two points that Washington has not yet wanted to negotiate.
Trump is faced with an important decision. He can either prepare possible concessions to Iran – although the president has repeatedly reiterated that the USA had won the war that began at the end of February. Or Trump can order a full resumption of hostilities. Both options are bad, also for domestic and economic policy reasons. The Iran war is still extremely unpopular among the American population. Many people in the USA complain about the high gasoline and diesel prices, a consequence of the conflict.
Donald Trump is facing an important decision.Image: keystone
Could China now take on an important mediating role?
Finding a way out is also difficult for Trump because he will be abroad for several days this week. On Tuesday, the American president will travel to Beijing for a state visit to Xi Jinping. Trump has actually been looking forward to this trip, which was originally supposed to take place in March, for a long time: Xi wants to lavishly entertain his guest for two days.
However, because the American president has not yet succeeded in ending the Iran war, he could now act in a position of weakness. The Chinese regime has already signaled that Xi wants to talk to Trump about the ongoing trade conflict between the two countries. The Chinese ruler is seeking concessions from the American president in the dispute over Chinese imports to the USA. Trump is actually not ready for this: his tough action against unfair Chinese trade practices is supported by both major parties in Washington. It is one of the few elements of his economic policy that Republicans and Democrats support.
Trump and Xi Jinping in 2025.Image: keystone
But Trump is also a highly flexible politician. If the Chinese ruler promised to put pressure on Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, could the American president resist this offer? Even if he would have to make concessions in the bilateral trade war?
What happens next?
Any decisions Trump makes in the next few days will have an impact on the US general election in November. The president fears that his Republican Party will lose its majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. And that the Democrats will make life difficult for him in the second half of his second term. That’s why Trump absolutely wants to prevent the opposition from emerging as the winner of the so-called midterm elections in six months.
If Trump decides to resume attacks on the Iranian regime after returning from China, further disruptions in the energy market can be expected. This cannot be in the president’s political interest. On the other hand, resuming an unpopular war in the Middle East would not be a campaign hit for the Republicans.
So Trump has maneuvered himself into a dead end. The next few days will show whether the Chinese ruler will show him a way out. (aargauerzeitung.ch)