An oil tanker in the Chinese port of Qingdao.Image: keystone
Donald Trump initiated a world-historical experiment with his Iran war. It’s a race against time.
May 15, 2026, 11:56 amMay 15, 2026, 11:56 am
In the oil market it has always been considered the “nightmare scenario”: the Strait of Hormuz blocked, no longer allowing passage for 20 percent of the global supply of crude oil and liquid gas. Then Donald Trump attacked Iran – beginning a historic experiment.
The world will now find out what the consequences are. Everything falls apart. Which is more resilient than feared. Whether reality is perhaps less nightmarish than the nightmare scenario. It’s like a real experiment. Nobody knows the outcome.
Not everything is in his hands: US President Donald TrumpImage: keystone
After more than two months, however, it is clear: the blockade has triggered trends that are mitigating the consequences. Javier Blas, energy expert at the Bloomberg news agency, has discovered such a trend in China. This trend is huge, surprising and puzzling.
China’s energy system is very opaque even in peaceful times. In times of war, it is as if it is surrounded by a thick fog. The oil traders have to poke around in it by laboriously counting individual tankers, deciphering satellite images or maintaining local contacts. So they came across unusual events.
The world currently has too little oil. That’s why all countries should actually compete for the available oil. Instead, China appears to be staying away from the fray. His state-owned oil companies do not fight for every single shipment of oil; They sell some of them on to European and Asian competitors – as if they had too much oil.
And the picture that emerges from the tanker counts is even stranger: in the midst of this oil crisis, in which everyone in the world would like more oil, China is importing less oil. And not just a little less. It has cut its imports dramatically – by a quarter.
And if China imports a quarter less oil, that is roughly equivalent to the total annual consumption of Japan, itself one of the world’s five largest economies. Expert Blas writes:
“Simply put: What is happening in China right now is huge.”
According to Blas, China’s import turnaround is the second or third most important trend keeping the oil market balanced today. The only thing that is even more important is the pipeline with which Saudi Arabia bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The oil that comes from the strategic reserves of the USA and Japan is similarly important. So really “huge”.
A Chinese import turnaround has global consequences – this is because the Chinese economy is gigantic. Depending on the calculation, it is now larger than that of the USA. What happens in China rarely stays in China. It moves the world.
Unfortunately, this trend is as huge as it is puzzling. We don’t know how it came about or how long it might last. One can only speculate about the causes.
How well is the Chinese economy really doing?Image: keystone
China’s economy may be doing worse than official figures show. Possibly because the previous rise in oil prices has driven important export markets into recession, for example in Southeast Asia.
Or China has tapped into its gigantic reserves. Nothing can be seen on satellite images. But that doesn’t mean much. China has reserves that cannot be seen from space.
Or it is becoming more noticeable than expected that China is rapidly electrifying its transport sector: by 2025, electric cars are expected to account for over half of all new cars sold.
Or the explanation can be found in China’s obscure petrochemical manufacturers. They are the only ones in the world who produce their petrochemicals not only from petroleum but also from coal. The corresponding process was discovered by German chemists in 1925 and subsequently gained an infamous reputation.
It was used by the Nazis for their war machine and later by the apartheid regime for its sanctions-plagued economy. It has now found its last, gigantic user in the Chinese petrochemical industry. Since this petrochemical industry is now relying even more on coal, China is importing less oil.
At least that’s how we can speculate. But you can’t know.
This time Europe is still lucky in misfortune
What’s noticeable in Europe is that the nightmare scenario doesn’t feel like a nightmare – at least not yet. “Yes, there is an oil shock: this is reflected in aviation fuel,” says energy expert Blas.
«But is there a comprehensive energy shock? Not really.”
In other words: 2026 is not yet 2022. At that time, Europe was deliberately given an energy shock by Russian President Vladimir Putin. He cut off the gas supply. Gas prices shot up. The electricity prices behind. And small and medium-sized companies, for which electricity is far more important than oil, received record-high bills. All across Europe. French bakeries. British pubs. German shops. Swiss cafes.
However, in 2026 electricity prices will remain far behind the 2022 records. This is due to a number of trends.
In 2022, France’s nuclear industry had to repair dozens of reactors and produced less electricity than it had in 30 years – something Switzerland and Germany also suffered from. In 2026, nuclear power production will have recovered. In 2022, hydroelectric power plants also suffered from a drought that, according to a think tank, only happens once in 500 years. In 2026, Europe’s hydropower plants will be in a much better position so far.
In short: Europe has had even more bad luck in 2022, and so far 2026 has had good luck in bad luck.
But not only. Europe has also greatly expanded solar power after 2022. In 2026 it will now produce record amounts of electricity and thus push average electricity prices down, on some days into negative territory. Spain, for example, doubled its solar capacity between 2019 and 2026, is now comparatively well protected from the oil shock and is considered a model in this regard.
The European Union now wants to further reduce its dependence on oil and switch to electricity even more quickly. This energy transition is no longer justified solely by climate change. It is now seen as necessary for the economy, security and competitiveness. French Prime Minister Sébastian Lecornu said:
“It is no longer just about climate change, it also concerns our national interest.”
None of this means that Trump’s historic experiment is already over. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Oil is expensive and in the USA, for example, inflation had already increased to 3.8 percent. Oil reserves worldwide are being used up at a record pace and will soon reach “critically low levels,” according to the oil company Saudi Aramco.
How long China’s import turnaround can last is also uncertain. The US bank Morgan Stanley recently warned: “The oil market is in a race against time.”