A Russian Iskander missile taking off (archive image): Russia often uses such ballistic missiles against Ukraine.Image: www.imago-images.de
Latvian secret services warn of possible Russian provocations on NATO’s eastern flank. Hybrid attacks could be part of a strategy to weaken support for Ukraine.
June 25, 2026, 12:11 amJune 25, 2026, 12:11 am
Simon Cleven / t-online
Latvia has warned of possible Russian provocations against NATO’s eastern flank. According to an assessment by Latvian intelligence, Moscow is preparing hybrid attacks, including drone and missile strikes, to put pressure on the Baltic states and Poland.
“We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland,” an unnamed secret service employee told US broadcaster Fox News. “Not conventional warfare, as Russia is currently unable to do that, but hybrid attacks such as missiles, drones or other actions that are intended to send a signal: Stop supporting Ukraine or you will have your own problems,” the intelligence official continued.
The biggest concern of the Latvian authorities is not a conventional war, but rather a misjudgment by Kremlin leader Putin. “Russian institutions convey to Putin the reality he wants to hear, which can lead to dangerously wrong decisions,” the intelligence officer continued. Putin’s isolation and distorted reports from his environment could increase the risks of provocations.
Hybrid attacks and their consequences
According to the report, hybrid attacks like those already seen in Poland could further destabilize the security situation. Last September, several Russian drones entered Polish airspace in what was seen as a deliberate provocation. Such incidents show how Moscow is trying to stoke tensions on NATO’s eastern flank.
In addition, according to Latvia’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Russia is increasingly relying on so-called “lawfare”. Moscow is using international courts and legal mechanisms to put pressure on Western states and weaken support for Ukraine.
No immediate threat, but risks
A recent report from Latvia’s intelligence service describes how Russia is analyzing Iran’s experience with international sanctions to develop similar strategies against the West. Moscow has also prepared a complaint to the International Court of Justice accusing the Baltic states of discrimination against Russian minorities. Latvia warns that such legal actions are not only aimed at the courtroom, but could also serve as a pretext for further provocations.
Although Latvia currently sees no direct military threat, intelligence warns about the near future. “Russia would need three to five years to rebuild its military capabilities, even if the war in Ukraine ended today,” the assessment says.
According to Latvian authorities, Western sanctions against Russia are having an effect. “It is clear internally that the sanctions are putting a heavy burden on Russia’s economy and are forcing difficult decisions,” said the secret service. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether this could influence Putin’s attitude towards Ukraine.