Kaupo Rosin heads Estonia’s foreign intelligence service. Image: T Online
The head of the Estonian foreign intelligence service, Kaupo Rosin, analyzes the situation in Russia in an interview with CNN. He notices a clear change in mood.
May 25, 2026, 3:11 p.mMay 25, 2026, 3:11 p.m
The secret service agent told US broadcaster CNNthe mood in Russia has changed regarding the war in Ukraine. “I don’t hear any more talk of a total victory,” he stated. “People understand that the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is not going particularly well for the Russians.”
Russia is currently losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit, Rosin said. In fact, there are indications that the Kremlin’s previous policy of primarily recruiting volunteers and… to refrain from forced recruitmentis no longer enough to compensate for the horrendous losses at the front.
The Kremlin needs “more staff”
However, if Putin wants to overcome the de facto stalemate in Ukraine and go on the offensive again, he would have to have “substantially more staff” than is the case now. This is only possible through at least partial mobilization. There was one in September 2022 after Ukraine with a successful counteroffensive had pushed back the Russian forces in the Kharkiv area.
Even this partial mobilization met with resistance in Russia: demonstrations broke out and hundreds of thousands of men of military age fled to neighboring countries. Rosin believes that renewed partial mobilization could endanger stability in Russia. “We know that they are very concerned about internal stability.” In addition to the lack of soldiers for the armed forces, the economy often also lacked men.
According to Rosin, the problems in Ukraine will therefore continue to worsen for the Kremlin: “We are perhaps four or five months away from where the Russians can no longer negotiate from a position of strength.”
“Violence, instability, psychological problems and crime”
The soldiers who return to Russia after serving in Ukraine also bring problems home with them, said Rosin. “What they bring home is violence, instability, psychological problems and crime. This is already having an effect on the Russian population.” This applies even more to those soldiers who were pardoned from prison to serve at the front. It has already happened that such pardoned murderers murdered again at home in Russia after their release from service.
However, Rosin does not believe that there could be a revolution in Russia and a change of power in the Kremlin in the near future. But he points out that such systems are sometimes very hollow inside. “And if something happens, it happens very quickly. Then we will all be surprised.” (dhr)