Global oil stocks are declining due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.Image: keystone
Talks about ending the war in Iran are stalling. Now an energy expert is sounding the alarm. She names a date for the global oil collapse.
May 19, 2026, 5:19 p.mMay 19, 2026, 5:19 p.m
Peter Riesbeck / t-online
By September, commercial oil stocks could fall to an operational floor if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This is the conclusion reached in an analysis by Natasha Kaneva, raw materials expert at the US bank JP Morgan, entitled “The illusion of plenty”.
The energy expert and her team analyze the current situation on the oil market. They look at stashed oil reserves, increased production and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Around a fifth of the gas and oil needed worldwide is transported through the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran. The ship’s passage has been largely closed since the US attacks on Iran began. The consequences can be seen in rising prices at petrol pumps around the world.
According to the energy agency IEA, around 20 million barrels of oil per day are missing due to the blockage. (A barrel is around 159 liters.) Saudi Arabia in particular, which can export oil via a pipeline via a free port on the Red Sea, alleviates the shortfalls somewhat.
Natasha Kaneva warns of sagging like blood circulation
Kaneva and her team put the Saudi increase at six million barrels per day. Still missing 14 million barrels a day. The USA has increased its production. And China is drawing on its huge oil reserves. But according to Kaneva, even that is not enough to compensate for the blockade failures. Kaneva’s calculation: around eight million barrels of oil are missing every day.
That sounds manageable considering global oil reserves currently amount to around 8.4 billion oil. But Kaneva and her team make a different calculation:
Unlike the fuel in the car tank, which can be used to the last drop if necessary, the global oil market works differently. The expert compares the whole thing to the human bloodstream: If the level falls below a certain amount, the entire system collapses. “The cycle is crucial,” says Kaneva.
More than eighty countries are declaring states of emergency
In plain language: Oil tankers on the seas, refineries on land and also gas stations need a minimum circulation of oil so that the fuel cycle keeps going. That’s why Kaneva and her team are warning of a possible collapse in September.
Others are also concerned about the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Diggle, chief economist at fund manager Aberdeen, told the Financial Times newspaper that he expects the price of oil to rise to around $180 a barrel. Three times higher than before US President Donald Trump ordered the attack on Iran. “We are living on borrowed time,” says Diggle. Loosely translated: Time is already up.
Kaneva’s colleagues at USBank Morgan Stanley now warned: “An ‘escalation scenario’ – in which oil prices rise above $150 a barrel – would mean physical bottlenecks, supply chain disruptions and recessionary consequences.”
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