A Moscow resident inspects the damage to his apartment building after a Ukrainian drone attack.Image: keystone
interview
“This is a signal to the Kremlin”: Military expert Gustav Gressel explains what is behind the Ukraine attack on the Russian capital.
May 19, 2026, 05:18May 19, 2026, 05:18
stephan schocher, Vienna
Ukraine is retaliating: Kiev’s army sent hundreds of drones towards Russia over the weekend, and dozens reached Moscow and caused damage. The Kremlin reported at least three dead and twelve injured.
The attacks have brought Russia’s war against Ukraine straight to the heart of Russian state power. And they have shown the incompetence of Russian anti-aircraft defense.
The Russian reaction was correspondingly angry: Ukraine was attacked on Monday night with more than 500 drones and over 20 ballistic missiles. According to the Ukrainian emergency service, more than two dozen people were injured, including children.
Why is Ukraine attacking the Russian capital now? The political scientist Gustav Gressel classifies.
The Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow was spectacular. How do you rate this attack?
Gustav Gressel: This attack is of course a signal to Moscow and that was exactly how it was intended. Before May 9th, Russia made massive threats if the “Victory Day” parade in Moscow was disrupted. A short-term ceasefire was then agreed. Russia’s retaliatory attack came with a few days delay anyway. The Ukrainians’ fear is that Russia is primarily trying to wear down Ukraine through terrorist bombings. Ukrainians know that it will be more difficult to repel such attacks. That’s why a stake has now been driven into Moscow, according to the motto: mass attacks on us are not free, we can do that too. We can also wage war at this level of escalation.
Zelenskyj spoke of a fair answer. Is that one?
Ukraine is certainly paying more attention to the collateral damage the attacks cause. On the other hand: Many Russian offensive weapons that end up in civilian buildings are probably intended for military targets, but they do not hit. Russian weapons are very inaccurate. And much of it is simple terrorist bombing: libraries, cultural targets, medical facilities. But of course if you can penetrate Moscow with a cruise missile, then that is a signal to the Kremlin.
Political scientist and Russia expert Gustav Gressel.Image: Screenshot
What goals are the Ukrainians pursuing with these attacks?
The Ukrainians are pursuing two goals. First: to dry up the Kremlin’s sources of income by attacking the oil and gas infrastructure. Secondly: hit military installations, the arms industry, ammunition depots and, above all, facilities for the production of long-range weapons.
Why is the latter so important?
Ukraine does not receive enough resources to defend against such long-range weapons. So you have to fight the entire production line. All Ukrainian attacks fall into these two categories. This also makes the qualitative difference in the attacks: development offices and component producers are often located in built-up areas. But residential buildings are not the goal. The real goal is military.
A house outside Moscow burns, allegedly after Ukrainian drone fire.Image: keystone
Recently, Ukraine seemed to have a military advantage. What makes the difference on the Ukrainian side?
There is no clear advantage. The Ukrainians certainly have advantages in production. They have a very decentralized defense industry. This means that when the Russians locate and attack a plant, they hit one of many plants, and they don’t catch them often. In Russia, on the other hand, the arms industry is organized in a very centralized manner. If you hit a factory there, the entire production line for a weapon will be down.
Why do Ukrainians succeed in these attacks more often today than at earlier points in this war?
These are medium-range attacks up to a depth of hundreds of kilometers. The drones for reconnaissance at this distance have become very good. With these attacks the Ukrainians hit a lot of anti-aircraft defenses. And once I get through this anti-aircraft belt, I’m free to hunt.
A man documents the damage to a Moscow apartment building after a Ukrainian drone attack over the weekend.Image: keystone
Ukraine managed to do all of this despite stopping US military aid. What does this mean for the US role in this war?
The unreliability of the United States was the starting point for these attacks. These medium-range weapons were intended to replace the American Himars rocket launchers. There is no more ammunition for the Himars. The Americans have a monopoly on production and are exploiting it politically. In addition, the Russians quickly learned to jam the GPS transmitters in the Himars. The ammunition was also very expensive. This has motivated the Ukrainians to invest in drones in this range class.
Are Ukraine’s recent successes symbolic or is this actually a turning point?
Ukraine is doing much better than a year ago, but unfortunately Russia is already taking the initiative. They keep attacking. However, Russia is currently paying a much higher price in terms of material and human lives. The question is what price Putin is willing to pay. The big turning point in the war – I would be careful about that. We have to see what innovations and counter-innovations Russia does in this cycle and how the situation develops in the next winter of war. The coming winter could mean the biggest shortage of anti-aircraft ammunition ever for Ukraine and therefore be extremely difficult. Russia will certainly wait and see what damage it can do. (aargauerzeitung.ch)