The sea of flowers in Sydney after the December 14 terrorist attack in which 15 people were killed. Image: keystone
The new Global Terrorism Index 2026 shows: The number of terrorism is falling worldwide, but in the West the faster online radicalization of young people is alarming the authorities.
March 20, 2026, 3:51 p.mMarch 20, 2026, 3:51 p.m
Anyone who has followed the headlines of the last few weeks and months might think that the world is descending into chaos. That’s not wrong, but there are also bright spots: That’s how he draws Global Terrorism Index 2026 (GTI) from the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) a surprising picture.
In 2025, the index, which provides a comprehensive analysis of global terror trends for the 13th time this year, recorded a significant decline in global terror.
The most important numbers at a glance:
- Deaths caused by terrorism fell by 28 percent 5582 victims. It is the lowest value in the last 14 years.
- The number of terrorist attacks increased by almost 22 percent 2944 incidents back.
- 81 countries were able to improve their terrorism situation compared to the previous year; in 19 countries it worsened.
But the all-clear has its limits. While terror is decreasing worldwide, it is becoming increasingly geographically concentrated. Almost 70 percent of all deaths occurred in just five countries: Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Pakistan has replaced Burkina Faso as the country most affected by terrorism in the world.
The deadliest terrorist groups in 2025 were the Islamic State (IS), JNIM (West Africa & Maghreb), the TTP (Pakistan) and al-Shabaab (Somalia). Only in the TTP did the number of victims increase compared to the previous year.
Turnaround in the West: The return of violence
While the global terrorism curve is pointing slightly downwards, Western countries are experiencing the opposite development. The number of deaths rose by a whopping 280 percent to 57 deaths. Mass attacks such as the truck attack in New Orleans or the attack on Bondi Beach in Australia (the deadliest in the country’s history) shaped the year 2025.
What is particularly striking is that terror is becoming more political. In the USA, many attacks were ideologically motivated, which, according to the study authors, reflects the deep divisions in society.
The new face of terror: young, lonely, radicalized
One of the report’s most alarming findings concerns the next generation. The radicalization of young people has become one of the most pressing security issues in the West.
- Young people and minors made up around 42 percent of all terror investigations in Europe and North America in 2025 – a tripling since 2021.
- The path to extremism used to take months or years, but today a few weeks are often enough. This is facilitated by short video propaganda on social media and algorithms that specifically exploit psychological vulnerabilities.
- In the West, social isolation and alienation are the main reasons why teenagers drift into extremist circles.
At least one positive thing is that attacks by minors are thwarted much more often. The security authorities’ success rate here is 97 percent, as the planning is often less professional than for adults.
Terrorism definition from the Global Terrorism Index
The act must be intended to send a larger message beyond the immediate victim through fear or intimidation. Purely criminal violence without ideological motivation is not included.
Switzerland an island of the blessed?
Switzerland ranks 67th out of 163 countries examined in the global terrorism ranking. This means that it continues to be one of the countries with very deep terrorism impacts. Compared to the previous year, Switzerland has even improved by 13 places.
With a GTI score of 0.749, Switzerland is in a similar category to the United Arab Emirates or Norway. While neighboring countries such as Germany (29th place), France (35th place) and Austria (51st place) are significantly more affected or have higher risk values, Switzerland remains firmly in the group of the safest countries.
Nevertheless, experts urge vigilance: Even if Switzerland is currently hardly directly affected by attacks, it is part of the European area in which the online radicalization of young people knows no limits.
The calm before the storm?
Despite the positive global numbers, the report’s authors are concerned about 2026. The geopolitical situation has worsened due to new conflicts (e.g. between Pakistan and Afghanistan or the escalations in the Middle East). In addition, terrorist groups are increasingly shifting their activities to border regions where there is a lack of state control.
According to the study’s authors, future terrorism will be characterized less by large organizations and more by “lone wolves” and radicalized young people who find their way to extremism in front of their smartphones in their children’s rooms