The war in the Middle East – problem or stroke of luck for Moscow?image: Imago, montage watson
While the US-Israeli war against Iran is giving Russia higher oil prices and diverting attention from Ukraine, it is also endangering a key ally and Moscow’s interests in the Middle East.
Mar 11, 2026, 10:37 p.mMar 11, 2026, 10:37 p.m
Team AFP / Moscow, Russia
Russia, which has been at war in Ukraine since 2022, appears to be losing as much as it is gaining from the US-Israeli war against Iran: Russia could lose a strategic ally in the Middle East, but at the same time benefit from a continued rise in energy prices.
Energy prices have skyrocketed since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. On Monday, the price of oil exceeded the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since the Russian offensive against Ukraine began in 2022, before falling slightly again.
A stroke of luck for Russia…
The price of Urals oil, the main benchmark for Russian crude, rose around 60% to $90 a barrel. For Russia, one of the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas, this means the prospect of significantly higher government revenues than originally expected.
Any increase in oil prices of $11 per barrel above the $59 level set by Russia in the state budget could generate $28 billion in additional revenue by the end of the year, the Kremlin-affiliated newspaper Izvestia reported.
The near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around 20% of global oil supplies, benefited Russian supplies.
Indian imports of Russian oil amount to around 1.2 million barrels per day, according to Sumit Ritolia from the analysis company Kpler – significantly more than the 800,000 to 850,000 barrels expected before the start of the war.
The fire of an oil storage facility following the American and Israeli attacks in the Tehran region on March 8, 2026.image: ANADOLU
… which will not save the economy
However, Russia has spent enormous sums to finance its war in Ukraine while suffering from the loss of the European market. To compensate for this, prices would have to remain at a high level over a longer period of time. In an article, Alexandre Koliandre, researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis, writes:
“If oil prices no longer remain high and the ruble does not depreciate significantly, the Kremlin’s budget problems will continue.”
Although Russia has seen a “significant increase” in demand for energy sources since the start of the war in the Middle East, as the Kremlin says, it continues to have difficulty selling its products to markets other than Asia.
The European Union, once a major customer, banned imports of Russian crude transported by sea in 2022.
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to supply Europe with energy sources again – provided that the Europeans were in favor of “long-term and stable cooperation without political conjuncture” with Moscow.
A new ally of the weakened Kremlin
Russia has strengthened its ties with Iran since the start of its offensive in Ukraine. The two countries have intensified their trade and Tehran supplied Moscow with the valuable technology of the Shahed drones, which Russia itself now produces on a large scale.
In January 2025, Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement in which both countries commit to joint action against common threats. But as in the case of its ally Venezuela, Russia hardly has the means to support Tehran militarily against the USA and Israel. Ivan Bocharov, an analyst at the Russian Council for International Affairs, explains in the Russian media “Lenta”:
“Russia’s image in Iran inevitably suffers as a result.”
In his view, this relative impotence “undermines trust” in Moscow. When asked last week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tehran had not asked Moscow for any military help.
Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman.image: Imago
American media also reported on an exchange of intelligence information from Russia that is intended to help Iran attack targets. Nikita Smagin, an expert at the Carnegie Institute, judges:
“Even if the Iranian regime manages to stay in power, the fighting will ultimately harm Russian interests and endanger its projects in the region.”
Moscow has numerous investments planned in Iran, including a $25 billion nuclear power plant planned to be built in the southern Hormozgan region.
A serious blow for Ukraine
The war in the Middle East has diverted the international community’s attention from Russia’s war against Ukraine and forced Kiev’s allies to redirect their military resources.
Before the bombing of Iran began, US President Donald Trump pushed for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine and organized several rounds of talks.
Meanwhile, “the priority and all attention of the partners” are focused on Iran, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted on Monday, announcing the postponement of a new meeting indefinitely.
A long war in Iran could also weaken Ukraine’s air defenses, which rely heavily on Western missile supplies and could become scarce if fighting continues.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.image: Imago