Image: watson/getty/keystone/imago
analysis
The US President’s greed for black gold is insatiable – and stupid.
Jan 13, 2026, 4:43 p.mJan 13, 2026, 4:43 p.m
“Why didn’t we take the oil?” complained Donald Trump – then still a real estate tycoon in New York – after George W. Bush’s Iraq campaign. The question made sense more than two decades ago. Back then, oil was still the most important raw material that kept the global economy running. “Today, oil is no longer our Achilles heel,” says Amy Myers Jaffe, a political scientist at New York University, in the New York Times.
One can argue about how long it will take, but what is undisputed is that the future belongs to electric cars, not only for environmental reasons, but simply because the technology is superior to combustion engines and China is now able to produce them at competitive prices. In addition, solar and wind energy have also become cheaper than gasoline and diesel.
Role model for Trump: William McKinley.Image: keystone
With the extinction of the combustion engine, the most important consumer of oil will disappear. In addition, more black gold is currently being produced than the world needs. There is an oil glut on the markets, which means prices are also in the basement.
Donald Trump sees it completely differently. His role model is William McKinley, US President between 1897 and 1901. Like Trump, he was a big fan of tariffs, and it was he who directed a short colonial phase for the Americans. Under McKinley, the United States annexed Hawaii and Puerto Rico and drove the Spanish out of the Philippines.
Because Trump looks into the rearview mirror of history, he fails to recognize the new conditions on the energy markets. He is proud that not a single wind turbine will be installed during his term in office and that he is doing his best to sabotage Joe Biden’s efforts on sustainable energy. As is well known, his mantra is: “Drill, baby, drill”.
“Since the 1980s, Mr. Trump has been fixated on oil as the driving force of geopolitics,” notes the New York Times. “In his book “Art of the Deal,” published in 1987, he writes that the oil crisis in 1973 destroyed American airlines. After returning to the White House last year, he announced the formation of a National Energy Dominance Council with the aim of reducing dependence on foreign imports.
Model for Trump: the Monroe Doctrine.Image: Wikimedia
Greed for oil and blatant neo-colonialism are at the core of the Donroe Doctrine, which states that the USA can do as it pleases in what Trump considers to be the West. Venezuela is the first victim of this doctrine. It has now become crystal clear that the fall of dictator Nicolás Maduro was merely a side effect of the American military strike. Trump’s main concern is oil, as he repeatedly emphasizes.
Although Venezuela has the largest known oil reserves in the world, its share of global production is just one percent. This is not only due to the dilapidated, neglected infrastructure that has been neglected for decades. The oil is also difficult to break down and of poor quality. In addition, the situation in the country ruled by gangs is far too uncertain to justify investments in the three-digit billion range.
That’s why the American oil multinationals’ desire to get involved on a large scale is limited. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods drew the president’s ire for bluntly declaring: “Venezuela is uninvestable.”
The USA is currently the largest oil producer in the world. That’s not enough for Trump. He wants to make his country the largest petro-state ever. It is therefore conceivable that he could be tempted to grab hold of Iran too. The current demonstrations against the Ayatollah regime provide the perfect excuse for this. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, explains that air strikes are “one of the many options” that are on the table.
Pushing the President for a Diplomatic Solution: JD Vance.Image: keystone
The president doubled down: “Apparently a lot of people were killed. “That shouldn’t have happened,” said Trump. “The military is taking a close look at the situation. We have many options.”
So far, the US President has only imposed a punitive tariff of 25 percent on all countries that import oil from Iran. His deputy JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are also said to be urging him to seek a diplomatic solution, reports the Wall Street Journal. However, the paper adds: “Trump currently favors the option of attacking Iran.”
A military attack on Iran is unlikely to be as slim as in Venezuela, especially since it is not clear what such an attack will be aimed at and what consequences it will have. Simply kidnapping Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and carrying on with the rest of the ayatollahs is unlikely to be a solution.
A price of $50 for a barrel of oil is Trump’s stated goal. That would help him dampen the “affordability” crisis in the US and reassure his voters. But at the same time it would cause him a lot of trouble. Neither the oil producers in Texas nor the sheikhs in the Persian Gulf can live with this price. No wonder, then, that Cliff Kubchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a political consulting firm, commented on Trump’s insatiable greed for oil: “I think this is a bad bet.”