The weather forecast for July 7th: The GFS weather model calculates temperatures of up to 44 degrees in Spain and France.Image: meteociel.fr/GFS
The next heat wave is brewing in southern Europe. In Spain there is a threat of up to 44 degrees, and France is also approaching the 40 degree mark.
Jul 4, 2026, 10:28 p.mJul 4, 2026, 10:28 p.m
Ellen Ivits / t-online
Spain and France are preparing for a new heat wave. In parts of Spain, temperatures could rise to up to 44 degrees Celsius in the coming days, while in southern France they are expected to approach the 40 degree mark.
According to the Spanish weather agency Aemet, a dry and very hot air mass is expected to affect large parts of the country from Saturday. The southeast of Spain is particularly affected. Temperatures there could rise to 42 to 44 degrees next Tuesday.
Unusual heat for Spain
The predicted heat is well above the usual values for this time of year. In large parts of Spain, temperatures are expected to be six to eight degrees above the average for the years 1991 to 2020.
According to the weather forecast, it will also remain unusually warm at night. The lowest temperatures on the Mediterranean coast and in central and southern Spain will be 22 to 24 degrees.
Climate change makes heat more likely
According to an analysis by the scientific organization Climate Central, the current heat in Spain is not an ordinary weather event. Accordingly, man-made climate change has made extreme temperatures at least five times more likely. The basis for the calculation is the so-called Climate Shift Index (CSI).
Climate Central climate scientist Zachary Labe said that with each passing summer, the likelihood of dangerous and long-lasting heat waves increases. A Climate Shift Index of 5 shows that this exceptional heat has become significantly more likely due to climate change, he explained.
Such weather events posed significant risks to public health, ecosystems, food systems, public safety and infrastructure reliability.
Deadly heat in Europe
Preliminary figures out Spain and France show how dangerous the extreme heat was in June. There were 1,029 heat-related additional deaths in Spain, according to data from the Spanish Ministry of Health and Mortality Surveillance System.
In France, the health authority spoke of around 1,000 additional deaths during the ten-day heat wave at the end of June. The number is still incomplete and a final balance is not yet available.
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