Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko believes it is possible that Russian private individuals and officials could escape.Image: www.imago-images.de
Ukraine is increasing attacks on the infrastructure of the Russian-occupied peninsula. Kyiv has a specific goal.
Jul 2, 2026, 3:22 amJul 2, 2026, 3:22 am
Thomas Wanhoff / t-online
On Monday, a state of emergency was declared in Crimea by the Russian occupation authorities, and an evacuation is now being prepared. As the Russian Telegram channel “VChK-OGPU” reports, there is already a plan to move part of the population from the peninsula. In addition, members of Governor Sergei Aksyonov’s bodyguard are said to have brought oil depots and shipping companies under control, according to the channel.
“VChK-OGPU” is classified as a foreign agent by the Russian authorities and has frequently leaked information from Russian government circles in the past.
Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko believes it is possible that Russian private individuals and officials could escape. Evacuation by sea would be difficult, Ukraine has the Sea of Azov effectively under control and Russian ships have also been attacked several times in the Black Sea, he told the Austrian “Krone”. The land route via Chonhar and Armyansk is also being attacked by Ukrainian drones.
“In fact, only the Kerch Bridge remains,” explained Kovalenko. Russia is still able to transport people and goods across this Crimean bridge, the most important supply route. But it could be a question of time before Ukrainian drones or missiles hit this structure, which Vladimir Putin himself inaugurated in 2018.
Whether the strengthening of Ukraine with its drone attacks already represents a turning point in the Russian war of aggression that has been going on for more than four years is controversial among experts. The German military expert Carlo Masala expressed skepticism during a visit to South Korea. “I’m still hesitant about whether these are really strategic successes. “A lot will depend on whether Ukraine is able to maintain this pressure,” he said.
Ex-US general: “Crimea is the crucial theater”
Ukraine’s goal is clear. “Basically, Crimea is being isolated by drones. And it looks like Crimea will turn into an island in the near future,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in an interview with local media last week.
«Crimea is the decisive theater, the focal point of this war. And whichever side controls Crimea will win the war. “I cannot imagine an end to the war and the establishment of a long-term, sustainable peace as long as Russia continues to control Crimea,” said former US general Ben Hodges to the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform.
Video: watson/nina bürge
Ukraine escalated attacks
Since the beginning of the war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law, Ukraine has targeted the Russian military on the occupied peninsula. In 2022, Kiev first attacked Russian naval units and seaports used to reinforce and supply Crimea. As early as March 2022, the Ukrainian army attacked the port of Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov with ballistic missiles. A month later, a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile sank the cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Then the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol was hit – the Russian Navy withdrew its ships to Novorossiysk and other ports further east.
In the following months, Ukraine increased its drone attacks on Russian military facilities and infrastructure. For the first time, the Kerch Bridge was also a target; a truck loaded with explosives damaged the structure. In the years that followed, the Ukrainian military intensified attacks. Recently, so many Russian oil depots were damaged that fuel became scarce in Crimea. The Kyiv Independent reported last week that half of the peninsula no longer has electricity.
Governor admits problems with water supply
Sevastopol Governor Mikail Razvoschaev said last Friday that unstable electricity supply had led to problems with water pressure in parts of the city. At the same time, ferry and passenger traffic across Sevastopol Bay was suspended on Friday morning. However, transport authorities did not give reasons for the suspension.
Restrictions were also imposed on the Crimean Bridge, which connects the peninsula with mainland Russia. According to the authorities, more than 2,000 vehicles were waiting to cross; the waiting time was about five hours.
Ukraine is on track to achieve its goal of isolating Crimea. The Ukrainian General Staff said on Tuesday that its forces had attacked a railway bridge near occupied Ichki in the east of the peninsula. The bridge was the target of a Ukrainian attack on June 28th.