Russia and its President Vladimir Putin are being taught the same lesson that was taught to Nazi Germany in World War II.
June 29, 2026, 05:09June 29, 2026, 05:09
Is everything going according to plan? Ukraine is not the expected easy opponent for Russian President Vladimir Putin.Image: keystone
World events seem to be determined by oil. Whoever has enough wins; Whoever is in danger of running out loses.
This applies to the Iran war, where US President Donald Trump justified his unfavorable Iran deal by saying that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened for oil transport must. “I didn’t want an economic catastrophe,” Trump said, according to the news agency Reuters. “If we had continued like this, this could have happened.”
And when Trump talks about a catastrophe, he really means a catastrophe. “The one president I definitely didn’t want to be was Herbert Hoover,” Trump continued. Hoover was US president in October 1929 when the US stock market crashed, triggering a global crisis later known as the Great Depression.
Trump was warned about his Iran deal by oil industry bosses, Politico reported. The reserves are dangerously low and the price of oil is threatened to shoot up.
The Ukrainian defense struggle against Russia also revolves around oil. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is systematically bombing Russian oil refineries – and, according to independent Russian media, has triggered a “fuel crisis”. It is difficult to estimate how far this crisis has progressed. However, according to a survey, there are already bottlenecks or sales are declining in almost all regions restricted.
Far from all the statistics, the German tabloid Bild found perhaps the clearest evidence of the shortage on the Russian Internet: a video of drivers fighting over fuel. “Bild” titles it succinctly: “Russians are killing each other Petrol”.
A state of hopelessness
However, experts see historical parallels behind such beating scenes – and a trend that may be decisive for the war. Military analyst Michael Bohnert from the US think tank Rand reacts to the reports of fuel shortages as follows: “I never thought it would come to this. “Russia will soon be taught the same lesson as Nazi Germany in World War II.”
In the Second World War, it was crucial that the Allies controlled the skies from the summer of 1944. Even a first-class military like the German one cannot last long if the enemy can fire at will from the air, it was said later US report. However, it was not the bombing of cities or weapons factories that put Nazi Germany in a “state of hopelessness”.
What caused the decline and then collapse of the German economy in the first place were blows to basic industries, essential to everything else. The most indispensable was the petroleum industry, which provided the fuel for everything else. As the then Armaments Minister Albert Speer reported to Hitler, the fuel shortage reached “catastrophic proportions” in December 1944.
According to the US report, the most dramatic consequences occurred at the front. During a German offensive in December 1944, many tank units ran out of fuel in the middle of the battlefield. In the spring of 1945, the same fate befell around 1,200 German tanks that were supposed to stop a Russian attack. “They were immobilized and overrun.”
What happened to Nazi Germany back then could also happen to Putin, writes Bohnert. Like Adolf Hitler, Putin no longer controls the skies over his own country, or at least not completely. He may take back control, but for now he has to share the skies over Russia with Ukraine. And they’re doing the same thing there as the Allies did when they brought Nazi Germany to its knees: bombing oil refineries.
It hasn’t just been doing this since today, but since 2025. Expert Bohnert already pointed out the importance of this campaign back then. If this trend continues and intensifies, “then the Russian bear will slowly be starved.”
Perhaps the Russian bear was already hungry in 2025, but it certainly wasn’t starved. But in 2026 he will be deprived of even more food.
In 2025, bombs fell on Russia’s approximately 45 refineries only every two to three days. In 2026 there will be bangs somewhere in Russia almost every day. And the explosions are more powerful. According to Bohnert, Russia no longer needs an estimated two weeks for a repair, but an average of around four weeks.
A spectacular example of this is the Moscow oil refinery that was recently hit and from which the city previously sourced around 70 percent of its gasoline. It might even last half a year stand still.
Are imperial dreams going up in smoke? An oil refinery in Moscow is on fire after a Ukrainian drone attack.Image: Reuters
It’s a race. Ukraine bombs as often and as heavily as possible; Russia is repairing as well and quickly as possible. In the end, perhaps only a few refineries will be idle this Russian summer – but it could also be many or even very many.
As long as it is less than 30 percent of all its refineries, Russia can still cope, according to Bohnert. However, given the current trend, it will probably soon be 45 percent. And that would be too much.
Putin blames others
Russia’s situation could therefore approach that of Nazi Germany after the loss of air supremacy. The US report in question recorded a saying from German workers who had repaired synthetic oil factories: “Today we finished rebuilding the plants – tomorrow the bombers will come back.”
It remains a race. Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether Putin can counter the Ukrainian strategy. So far he has viewed it primarily as a desperate attempt dismissedwhile Ukraine is “losing one territory after another and our troops are taking one settlement after another” – according to the US Institute for the Study of War, Putin has recently lost more territory than won. If something needs to be done, then, according to Putin, the main responsibility “of course lies with the Ministry of Defense.”
However, the further the fuel shortage spreads, the more pressure Russian industry will come under, according to expert Bohnert. First slowly, then faster and faster. “At some point machines fail, there is no replacement and the system collapses,” says Bohnert. He did not want to make a prediction about when this would happen. “But the longer the attacks continue, the closer this moment gets.” (schweiztoday.ch)