A ship in the Persian Gulf accompanied by a US Navy warship.Image: www.imago-images.de
According to Allianz analysis, around 1,150 ships are still stuck in the Persian Gulf despite the framework agreement to end the Iran war.
June 24, 2026, 07:15June 24, 2026, 07:17
The largest German insurer estimates the value of the blocked ships and their cargo at around $125 billion.
The largest German insurer estimates the value of the blocked ships and their cargo at around $125 billion. Clearing this traffic jam would therefore take several weeks even if conditions normalize. “Shipping is hostage to this conflict,” said Justus Heinrich, a senior shipping insurance expert at subsidiary Allianz Commercial.
Iran announced a new closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend, citing non-compliance with the agreed ceasefire in southern Lebanon. According to the Allianz expert, the result is continued uncertainty at sea: “The International Shipping Organization (IMO) and German shipowners (VDR) say that they cannot yet assess the danger to crews and ships.” The ships wouldn’t sail that long.
“Booklet of Action” in Tehran
Iran has a lot of leverage since between 20 and 25 percent of global trade in oil and liquid gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz. “We always get to the point where Iran has control over the shipping situation,” said Heinrich. The shipping expert referred to the establishment of Iran’s new Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz Administration Authority (PGSA). This should check or confirm the insurance of all shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, said Heinrich. “As things stand, the route along the coast of Oman is considered a violation of Iran’s rules with all possible consequences” – the latter route was recommended by the US military.
Clearing the ship jam may take time
“Even if conditions return to normal, it would certainly take weeks until all stuck ships have passed the Strait of Hormuz,” said Heinrich. According to a report by the British BBC, only 170 ships have passed through the strait since June 18 – the day after the framework agreement was signed. Before the US and Israeli attack on Iran, around 140 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz every day, according to Allianz. According to Heinrich, everyday problems also play a role: “Many ships need to be technically checked because, for example, the main engine has not been in operation for a long time or some spare parts on board may have run out.” Many ships would also have to take on fuel.
The Suez Canal is also almost deserted
According to the Allianz expert, shipping traffic on the shortest sea route from East Asia to Europe through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, which is even more important for the global economy, is still severely affected. The Iran-backed Houthi militias have been threatening international shipping there since the start of the Gaza war in autumn 2023. The result is that, according to Heinrich, most shipping companies send their ships on the detour around Africa, which is several thousand nautical miles longer. “We have 80 percent fewer ships passing through the Suez Canal.” (sda/dpa)